NBA games

MIN @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
124–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN39312826124
DET40222827117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home DET
69% 31%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 31 27 6 4
Anthony Edwards S 33 27 5 8
Jaden McDaniels S 30 23 3 0
Rudy Gobert S 38 19 16 2
Naz Reid 23 9 4 1
Mike Conley S 29 8 3 7
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 23 7 0 1
Kyle Anderson 22 4 3 9
Troy Brown Jr. 1 0 0 0
Jordan McLaughlin 8 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaden Ivey S 36 32 4 6
Bojan Bogdanovic S 32 20 5 3
Jalen Duren S 31 16 11 3
Alec Burks 20 12 1 1
Isaiah Stewart S 25 12 4 2
Killian Hayes S 26 8 1 8
Ausar Thompson 22 7 9 1
Marcus Sasser 12 5 1 2
Kevin Knox II 21 5 1 2
Mike Muscala 15 0 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bojan Bogdanovic · Layup (2 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Bojan Bogdanovic makes driving layup (Jaden Ivey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
12%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
11%
3 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
4 Jaden Ivey DET
11%
5 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
10%
6 Bojan Bogdanovic DET
9%
7 Kevin Knox II DET
8%
8 Killian Hayes DET
7%
9 Isaiah Stewart DET
7%
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
31%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
21%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 27.8 5.1 5.2
2 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 22.8 7.4 4.1
3 Bojan Bogdanovic DET 20.2 4.6 3.4
4 Jaden Ivey DET 19.5 5.0 5.0
5 Jalen Duren DET 16.4 10.9 2.8
6 Alec Burks DET 16.1 2.9 2.0
7 Rudy Gobert MIN 15.3 12.0 1.4
8 Naz Reid MIN 12.4 5.5 1.8
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN 11.0 3.1 2.1
10 Isaiah Stewart DET 11.0 6.0 2.4
11 Kevin Knox II DET 11.0 3.1 1.4
12 Mike Conley MIN 10.0 2.4 6.1
13 Kyle Anderson MIN 6.8 3.5 3.3
14 Stanley Umude DET 6.6 2.5 1.0
15 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 5.9 1.9 2.1
16 Killian Hayes DET 5.6 2.5 5.0
17 James Wiseman DET 5.4 3.9 0.7
18 Ausar Thompson DET 4.9 4.0 1.1
19 Marcus Sasser DET 4.3 1.7 2.1
20 Luka Garza MIN 4.0 1.3 0.7
21 Mike Muscala DET 3.8 3.0 0.8
22 Danilo Gallinari DET 3.7 2.0 0.6
23 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 3.5 1.3 2.1
24 Joe Harris DET 3.1 1.3 0.7
25 Shake Milton MIN 2.6 0.7 0.6
26 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 2.2 1.0 0.7
27 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 1.7 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.