NBA games

OKC @ LAC

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
117–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC30312828117
LAC35303429128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home LAC
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Williams S 33 25 3 7
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 34 19 2 4
Luguentz Dort S 33 19 1 1
Isaiah Joe 23 15 6 3
Josh Giddey S 19 9 4 4
Chet Holmgren S 33 8 5 5
Vasilije Micic 11 7 1 2
Aaron Wiggins 17 7 4 2
Cason Wallace 15 5 2 1
Kenrich Williams 16 3 6 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paul George S 34 38 7 5
James Harden S 41 16 5 8
Kawhi Leonard S 37 16 6 6
Mason Plumlee S 28 14 5 2
Russell Westbrook 22 11 2 4
Amir Coffey 16 9 3 0
Daniel Theis 20 9 8 0
Norman Powell 19 8 0 1
Terance Mann S 24 7 3 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Terance Mann · Layup (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Terance Mann makes two point shot (Kawhi Leonard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Chet Holmgren OKC
13%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
13%
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC
13%
4 James Harden LAC
9%
5 Daniel Theis LAC
9%
6 Terance Mann LAC
9%
7 Paul George LAC
9%
8 Josh Giddey OKC
8%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
10 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
32%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
27%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.3 5.3 6.3
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 24.4 6.5 3.9
3 Paul George LAC 23.1 5.3 3.3
4 Jalen Williams OKC 20.1 5.2 6.0
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 19.0 6.1 3.6
6 James Harden LAC 18.0 4.4 10.5
7 Norman Powell LAC 14.0 3.3 1.4
8 Josh Giddey OKC 13.5 6.4 4.9
9 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.0 4.0 1.5
10 Russell Westbrook LAC 9.8 4.2 5.0
11 Terance Mann LAC 9.1 2.9 1.4
12 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.0 2.2 1.1
13 Cason Wallace OKC 6.4 2.6 1.3
14 Amir Coffey LAC 6.2 1.9 1.1
15 Daniel Theis LAC 5.8 3.5 1.0
16 Mason Plumlee LAC 5.5 4.5 1.2
17 Ousmane Dieng OKC 5.4 1.9 0.8
18 Kenrich Williams OKC 4.5 2.6 1.1
19 Vasilije Micic OKC 4.4 1.5 2.3
20 Aaron Wiggins OKC 4.4 2.0 0.8
21 Jaylin Williams OKC 3.5 2.5 1.2
22 P.J. Tucker LAC 3.4 2.1 0.9
23 Brandon Boston LAC 3.4 0.9 0.5
24 Tre Mann OKC 3.1 1.5 1.3
25 Bones Hyland LAC 3.0 0.8 0.9
26 Olivier Sarr OKC 2.7 2.7 0.4
27 Davis Bertans OKC 2.5 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.