NBA games

SAC @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
117–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC39292821117
PHX27243335119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home PHX
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 37 33 2 6
Domantas Sabonis S 39 21 12 11
Keegan Murray S 35 18 4 3
Sasha Vezenkov 18 14 2 1
Malik Monk 29 13 3 8
Kevin Huerter S 26 10 3 2
Harrison Barnes S 34 8 3 3
Alex Len 8 0 0 0
Trey Lyles 14 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Grayson Allen S 37 29 5 6
Kevin Durant S 39 27 5 4
Devin Booker S 38 16 4 11
Eric Gordon 24 13 3 2
Bradley Beal S 38 13 3 5
Jusuf Nurkic S 27 10 15 3
Chimezie Metu 10 6 5 1
Drew Eubanks 10 3 4 0
Josh Okogie 16 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kevin Huerter · Layup (2 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Kevin Huerter makes driving layup (Domantas Sabonis assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
13%
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC
12%
3 De'Aaron Fox SAC
11%
4 Bradley Beal PHX
10%
5 Keegan Murray SAC
9%
6 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
9%
7 Kevin Durant PHX
8%
8 Grayson Allen PHX
8%
9 Chris Duarte SAC
6%
10 Harrison Barnes SAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
38%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 25.6 6.1 6.9
2 Devin Booker PHX 25.1 3.9 7.0
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC 24.1 13.4 9.5
4 De'Aaron Fox SAC 23.3 3.7 5.3
5 Bradley Beal PHX 20.9 4.2 4.5
6 Malik Monk SAC 19.7 3.5 6.3
7 Grayson Allen PHX 15.5 3.7 3.2
8 Keegan Murray SAC 15.1 5.5 1.6
9 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 14.1 10.4 2.6
10 Eric Gordon PHX 11.3 2.5 1.6
11 Harrison Barnes SAC 8.6 1.9 1.1
12 Trey Lyles SAC 8.2 3.8 1.3
13 Kevin Huerter SAC 7.3 3.0 1.6
14 Chimezie Metu PHX 6.4 3.2 0.9
15 Chris Duarte SAC 4.6 2.0 1.1
16 Drew Eubanks PHX 4.5 3.6 0.6
17 Nassir Little PHX 4.2 2.3 0.7
18 Josh Okogie PHX 4.1 1.9 1.4
19 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 3.9 2.3 0.7
20 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 3.8 1.6 1.0
21 Alex Len SAC 3.1 3.5 1.4
22 JaVale McGee SAC 3.0 2.4 0.5
23 Keon Ellis SAC 3.0 1.1 0.8
24 Davion Mitchell SAC 2.7 0.9 0.7
25 Udoka Azubuike PHX 2.7 2.2 0.3
26 Kessler Edwards SAC 2.6 0.8 0.3
27 Jordan Goodwin PHX 2.4 1.9 1.5
28 Yuta Watanabe PHX 2.3 0.9 0.4
29 Juan Toscano-Anderson SAC 1.7 1.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.