NBA games

DEN @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
121–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN38402617121
PHI36422127126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home PHI
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 38 25 19 3
Michael Porter Jr. S 34 20 5 0
Jamal Murray S 38 17 3 10
Aaron Gordon S 39 16 6 4
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 33 13 5 2
Christian Braun 18 11 4 0
Reggie Jackson 20 10 2 2
Peyton Watson 11 5 1 2
DeAndre Jordan 10 4 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 39 41 7 10
Tyrese Maxey S 43 25 5 9
Tobias Harris S 38 24 5 4
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 27 11 5 0
Nicolas Batum S 35 8 4 2
Patrick Beverley 27 8 2 2
Marcus Morris Sr. 19 7 2 0
Paul Reed 9 2 2 0
Furkan Korkmaz 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyrese Maxey · Layup (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Tyrese Maxey makes 1-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
19%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
13%
3 Joel Embiid PHI
13%
4 Aaron Gordon DEN
10%
5 Tobias Harris PHI
10%
6 Nikola Jokic DEN
9%
7 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
7%
8 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
6%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
6%
10 Nicolas Batum PHI
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
31%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 37.1 10.4 8.7
2 Nikola Jokic DEN 26.6 12.6 8.9
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI 25.4 3.6 6.4
4 Jamal Murray DEN 24.7 4.1 7.2
5 Tobias Harris PHI 23.2 6.1 4.4
6 Aaron Gordon DEN 16.7 6.1 2.2
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 15.6 5.7 1.6
8 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 12.8 4.0 2.1
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 11.2 3.0 2.5
10 Reggie Jackson DEN 9.0 2.2 3.6
11 Peyton Watson DEN 9.0 3.4 1.0
12 Paul Reed PHI 8.2 5.4 1.7
13 Patrick Beverley PHI 7.9 3.5 3.1
14 Marcus Morris Sr. PHI 7.4 3.0 1.0
15 Nicolas Batum PHI 7.1 3.8 2.5
16 Christian Braun DEN 6.1 3.0 1.3
17 DeAndre Jordan DEN 5.0 5.9 0.9
18 Terquavion Smith PHI 4.5 1.4 0.8
19 Danuel House Jr. PHI 3.9 1.7 0.7
20 Justin Holiday DEN 3.8 1.3 1.0
21 Jay Huff DEN 2.7 1.7 0.5
22 Collin Gillespie DEN 2.7 0.9 0.6
23 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.6 1.8 0.6
24 Furkan Korkmaz PHI 2.6 1.0 0.7
25 KJ Martin PHI 2.6 1.2 0.6
26 Braxton Key DEN 2.2 1.2 0.6
27 Ricky Council IV PHI 2.1 0.9 0.3
28 Jalen Pickett DEN 1.7 0.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.