NBA games

OKC @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
105–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC26242629105
LAL27233428112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home LAL
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Williams S 35 25 3 6
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 34 24 3 6
Luguentz Dort S 29 11 7 1
Chet Holmgren S 31 9 8 4
Josh Giddey S 22 8 5 3
Vasilije Micic 15 6 1 1
Ousmane Dieng 12 5 3 0
Kenrich Williams 17 5 2 0
Cason Wallace 20 5 0 1
Isaiah Joe 20 4 7 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 38 27 15 5
LeBron James S 39 25 7 6
Austin Reaves S 33 15 3 7
D'Angelo Russell S 36 14 2 6
Rui Hachimura 20 12 3 0
Christian Wood 14 11 7 1
Jarred Vanderbilt 18 5 4 2
Taurean Prince S 31 3 2 3
Max Christie 11 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Josh Giddey · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Josh Giddey makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
14%
2 Chet Holmgren OKC
12%
3 LeBron James LAL
11%
4 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
5 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
10%
6 Austin Reaves LAL
10%
7 D'Angelo Russell LAL
9%
8 Josh Giddey OKC
8%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
10 Taurean Prince LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
60%
Jumper
9%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.4 5.8 7.6
2 Anthony Davis LAL 26.4 11.5 5.0
3 LeBron James LAL 24.4 5.7 8.6
4 Jalen Williams OKC 22.1 5.3 6.2
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 21.2 6.2 3.5
6 Austin Reaves LAL 16.6 3.4 5.1
7 D'Angelo Russell LAL 15.7 2.5 5.8
8 Josh Giddey OKC 14.1 6.8 5.4
9 Rui Hachimura LAL 12.1 3.6 1.4
10 Luguentz Dort OKC 10.7 3.9 1.8
11 Taurean Prince LAL 10.0 3.1 1.9
12 Christian Wood LAL 8.0 4.7 1.2
13 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.1 2.0 1.1
14 Cason Wallace OKC 6.5 2.7 1.4
15 Max Christie LAL 6.5 3.5 1.4
16 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 6.1 4.1 1.5
17 Ousmane Dieng OKC 5.2 1.7 1.0
18 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.1 2.2 0.9
19 Kenrich Williams OKC 4.5 2.7 1.4
20 Vasilije Micic OKC 4.3 1.6 2.9
21 Skylar Mays LAL 3.9 1.6 1.4
22 Tre Mann OKC 3.4 1.6 1.5
23 Olivier Sarr OKC 3.1 2.8 0.5
24 Davis Bertans OKC 2.8 0.9 0.6
25 Jaxson Hayes LAL 2.6 2.0 0.4
26 Jaylin Williams OKC 2.4 2.3 1.2
27 Dylan Windler LAL 1.8 0.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.