NBA games

IND @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
105–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND26242926105
UTAH33314127132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home UTAH
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Nembhard S 23 14 0 4
Buddy Hield S 23 14 2 1
Jalen Smith S 19 12 6 3
Myles Turner S 17 12 4 0
Bennedict Mathurin S 25 11 1 2
T.J. McConnell 19 8 5 5
Jarace Walker 26 8 4 4
Kendall Brown 12 8 2 1
Jordan Nwora 17 7 3 2
Ben Sheppard 25 4 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 28 32 10 3
Collin Sexton S 24 30 3 5
Keyonte George 24 19 0 5
Jordan Clarkson 27 17 3 2
John Collins S 20 10 6 1
Simone Fontecchio S 24 8 4 2
Kris Dunn S 21 4 2 6
Kelly Olynyk 17 4 6 4
Walker Kessler 25 4 5 1
Ochai Agbaji 24 4 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Lauri Markkanen · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Lauri Markkanen makes 14-foot pullup jump shot (Collin Sexton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 John Collins UTAH
14%
2 Myles Turner IND
14%
3 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
13%
4 Collin Sexton UTAH
12%
5 Jalen Smith IND
10%
6 Buddy Hield IND
9%
7 Simone Fontecchio UTAH
9%
8 Kris Dunn UTAH
9%
9 Andrew Nembhard IND
9%
10 Jordan Clarkson UTAH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
25%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 22.3 8.6 2.6
2 Collin Sexton UTAH 21.6 3.1 5.1
3 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 20.2 4.1 6.0
4 Myles Turner IND 18.6 6.8 2.2
5 Bennedict Mathurin IND 18.4 4.3 2.4
6 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 14.1 2.3 3.4
7 John Collins UTAH 14.0 6.9 1.8
8 Keyonte George UTAH 12.1 3.3 3.2
9 Obi Toppin IND 11.4 5.1 1.9
10 Andrew Nembhard IND 10.9 2.5 4.3
11 Buddy Hield IND 10.7 3.1 1.9
12 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 10.5 4.0 2.0
13 Jalen Smith IND 9.6 5.5 1.5
14 Kelly Olynyk UTAH 9.4 4.3 4.1
15 Walker Kessler UTAH 8.5 6.7 0.8
16 T.J. McConnell IND 8.4 2.9 6.0
17 Kris Dunn UTAH 6.8 3.3 4.6
18 Isaiah Jackson IND 6.7 4.0 1.1
19 Ochai Agbaji UTAH 4.5 2.7 1.0
20 Jordan Nwora IND 4.4 1.6 1.0
21 Luka Samanic UTAH 3.9 2.2 0.6
22 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 3.8 4.7 0.8
23 Jarace Walker IND 2.7 0.9 0.8
24 Oscar Tshiebwe IND 2.7 1.1 0.6
25 Ben Sheppard IND 2.7 0.9 0.7
26 Kendall Brown IND 2.1 1.1 0.6
27 James Johnson IND 1.4 0.7 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.