NBA games

BOS @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
105–96
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS29322321105
TOR2530202196

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home TOR
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jrue Holiday S 34 22 6 7
Derrick White S 37 22 2 1
Jayson Tatum S 37 19 14 6
Kristaps Porzingis S 32 15 6 2
Al Horford S 35 10 11 2
Oshae Brissett 7 7 3 0
Luke Kornet 18 4 3 0
Sam Hauser 16 3 5 0
Payton Pritchard 24 3 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 36 24 9 4
Immanuel Quickley S 37 21 6 3
Pascal Siakam S 37 17 5 4
Dennis Schroder 33 13 7 2
Scottie Barnes S 41 10 13 2
Jalen McDaniels 12 5 2 0
Chris Boucher 14 4 2 0
Jontay Porter S 15 2 4 3
Thaddeus Young 16 0 4 7

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kristaps Porzingis · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:10 Q1
"Kristaps Porzingis makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Jrue Holiday assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam TOR
13%
2 Scottie Barnes TOR
13%
3 RJ Barrett TOR
13%
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
13%
5 Derrick White BOS
10%
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR
9%
7 Thaddeus Young TOR
9%
8 Jrue Holiday BOS
9%
9 Jayson Tatum BOS
9%
10 Payton Pritchard BOS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
38%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 27.3 7.2 5.9
2 Pascal Siakam TOR 24.5 5.6 5.2
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 21.3 5.9 5.3
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 20.8 7.0 3.0
5 RJ Barrett TOR 20.6 6.4 3.6
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR 18.1 3.4 4.3
7 Dennis Schroder TOR 17.1 3.1 6.2
8 Jrue Holiday BOS 14.2 5.6 4.4
9 Derrick White BOS 14.1 4.5 4.7
10 Payton Pritchard BOS 10.1 3.3 3.4
11 Al Horford BOS 9.8 6.2 3.1
12 Sam Hauser BOS 7.4 3.6 1.0
13 Chris Boucher TOR 5.8 4.0 0.8
14 Oshae Brissett BOS 5.7 3.6 1.0
15 Luke Kornet BOS 5.4 4.1 1.1
16 Jontay Porter TOR 5.1 3.2 1.6
17 Neemias Queta BOS 4.6 4.1 0.5
18 Jalen McDaniels TOR 4.5 1.7 0.8
19 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 3.7 1.5 0.8
20 Gradey Dick TOR 3.7 1.2 0.9
21 Lamar Stevens BOS 3.6 2.1 0.7
22 Thaddeus Young TOR 3.6 1.8 1.4
23 Dalano Banton BOS 2.6 1.5 0.6
24 Garrett Temple TOR 2.6 1.2 0.8
25 Otto Porter Jr. TOR 2.0 1.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.