NBA games

MIA @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
96–95
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
MIA16153720896
BKN22232419795

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home BKN
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 40 31 5 4
Tyler Herro S 38 29 11 2
Bam Adebayo S 44 11 20 4
Caleb Martin 34 9 3 1
Josh Richardson 28 9 5 1
Nikola Jovic S 19 5 3 2
Kyle Lowry S 24 2 4 5
Thomas Bryant 5 0 0 1
Haywood Highsmith 12 0 1 0
Duncan Robinson 22 0 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Mikal Bridges S 44 26 9 6
Cam Thomas 32 23 2 3
Royce O'Neale 30 15 9 5
Nic Claxton S 43 9 13 2
Dennis Smith Jr. 32 8 5 5
Cameron Johnson S 23 6 2 0
Dorian Finney-Smith S 28 5 7 2
Spencer Dinwiddie S 20 3 0 1
Lonnie Walker IV 9 0 2 1
Trendon Watford 4 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bam Adebayo · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:01 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes 1-foot dunk (Jimmy Butler assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III MIA
17%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
13%
3 Tyler Herro MIA
12%
4 Mikal Bridges BKN
11%
5 Nic Claxton BKN
9%
6 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN
9%
7 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
8%
8 Cameron Johnson BKN
8%
9 Kyle Lowry MIA
7%
10 Nikola Jovic MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
17%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
31%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Bam Adebayo MIA 23.3 11.9 4.8
2 Tyler Herro MIA 22.0 5.5 5.0
3 Jimmy Butler III MIA 21.6 4.8 5.1
4 Mikal Bridges BKN 21.2 5.0 3.6
5 Cameron Johnson BKN 13.8 3.9 2.0
6 Nic Claxton BKN 13.2 10.8 2.5
7 Duncan Robinson MIA 12.6 2.9 3.5
8 Cam Thomas BKN 12.6 2.4 1.7
9 Caleb Martin MIA 10.8 5.7 2.6
10 Josh Richardson MIA 10.2 2.9 2.2
11 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN 9.9 2.6 4.4
12 Kyle Lowry MIA 9.3 2.9 3.6
13 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 8.9 2.3 1.2
14 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 8.0 3.3 4.7
15 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 7.5 3.6 1.3
16 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 7.3 6.4 1.6
17 Haywood Highsmith MIA 7.1 3.7 1.3
18 Nikola Jovic MIA 7.0 3.9 2.1
19 Royce O'Neale BKN 5.8 3.0 2.3
20 Orlando Robinson MIA 4.6 3.3 1.0
21 Trendon Watford BKN 4.4 2.5 1.3
22 Thomas Bryant MIA 3.2 2.7 0.4
23 Cole Swider MIA 3.2 0.8 0.5
24 Harry Giles III BKN 2.5 1.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.