NBA games

CHI @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
91109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI2125311491
CLE40202029109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home CLE
11% 89%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 38 18 4 3
Nikola Vucevic S 37 17 10 4
Zach LaVine S 35 17 4 4
Alex Caruso S 31 10 3 3
Ayo Dosunmu 19 10 3 3
Andre Drummond 22 8 10 1
DeMar DeRozan S 38 6 6 3
Jevon Carter 11 5 2 0
Terry Taylor 5 0 1 0
Dalen Terry 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 37 34 3 7
Caris LeVert 30 16 7 7
Sam Merrill 20 15 3 2
Dean Wade S 26 12 7 3
Jarrett Allen S 34 10 14 3
Georges Niang 19 9 2 0
Isaac Okoro S 25 7 5 1
Tristan Thompson 14 4 2 1
Max Strus S 35 2 5 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donovan Mitchell · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:09 Q1
"Donovan Mitchell makes 32-foot three point jumper (Max Strus assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
17%
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE
14%
3 Coby White CHI
13%
4 DeMar DeRozan CHI
10%
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI
10%
6 Zach LaVine CHI
9%
7 Alex Caruso CHI
8%
8 Isaac Okoro CLE
8%
9 Dean Wade CLE
6%
10 Max Strus CLE
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
18%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
25%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 26.8 5.0 7.1
2 DeMar DeRozan CHI 23.3 4.2 4.8
3 Coby White CHI 22.3 4.5 5.1
4 Jarrett Allen CLE 19.7 12.5 4.9
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI 18.9 9.5 3.4
6 Zach LaVine CHI 18.6 5.5 5.2
7 Caris LeVert CLE 18.6 3.6 5.5
8 Max Strus CLE 12.9 3.9 4.0
9 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 11.8 3.6 2.4
10 Isaac Okoro CLE 11.6 3.4 2.1
11 Andre Drummond CHI 11.0 10.7 1.1
12 Patrick Williams CHI 10.8 3.1 2.0
13 Alex Caruso CHI 10.3 4.0 2.8
14 Georges Niang CLE 9.4 3.6 1.3
15 Sam Merrill CLE 9.4 2.8 1.8
16 Torrey Craig CHI 6.1 3.1 0.8
17 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 6.1 3.4 3.9
18 Dean Wade CLE 6.0 4.4 1.1
19 Jevon Carter CHI 5.5 1.5 1.1
20 Tristan Thompson CLE 4.4 4.1 1.4
21 Dalen Terry CHI 4.0 1.8 1.4
22 Terry Taylor CHI 1.8 1.1 0.3
23 Emoni Bates CLE 1.8 0.9 0.5
24 Damian Jones CLE 1.4 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.