NBA games

GS @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
107–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS29273021107
MEM23313131116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home MEM
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 33 26 4 8
Jonathan Kuminga 29 20 11 0
Andrew Wiggins S 31 16 5 1
Dario Saric S 24 13 7 3
Klay Thompson S 34 9 0 3
Brandin Podziemski 27 8 4 4
Kevon Looney S 18 8 5 2
Draymond Green 24 7 7 4
Trayce Jackson-Davis 10 0 2 1
Cory Joseph 7 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Vince Williams Jr. S 38 24 7 4
GG Jackson 29 23 6 1
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 33 18 5 5
David Roddy 21 12 7 2
Jacob Gilyard 19 11 2 3
Luke Kennard S 32 11 2 5
Santi Aldama 17 11 6 1
Ziaire Williams S 20 4 3 0
Xavier Tillman S 30 2 4 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kevon Looney · Layup (2 pts) · 10:58 Q1
"Kevon Looney makes layup (Klay Thompson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
14%
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
10%
3 Kevon Looney GS
8%
4 Klay Thompson GS
7%
5 Draymond Green GS
7%
6 Xavier Tillman MEM
7%
7 Dario Saric GS
7%
8 David Roddy MEM
7%
9 Andrew Wiggins GS
7%
10 Jacob Gilyard MEM
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
33%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
18%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 23.8 3.7 6.3
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 20.6 5.8 2.4
3 Klay Thompson GS 18.7 3.7 3.5
4 Jonathan Kuminga GS 17.7 5.2 3.1
5 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 11.7 6.9 1.5
6 Brandin Podziemski GS 11.5 5.8 4.0
7 Andrew Wiggins GS 11.3 3.5 2.2
8 Draymond Green GS 11.2 6.0 5.6
9 Dario Saric GS 10.3 5.1 3.4
10 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 9.9 6.3 3.1
11 Luke Kennard MEM 8.9 3.2 2.5
12 Ziaire Williams MEM 8.7 2.9 1.5
13 David Roddy MEM 7.3 2.5 1.7
14 Derrick Rose MEM 7.1 1.9 3.6
15 Xavier Tillman MEM 6.7 5.7 1.6
16 Kevon Looney GS 6.3 4.9 1.4
17 Santi Aldama MEM 6.2 3.8 1.1
18 GG Jackson MEM 5.4 2.2 0.8
19 Jacob Gilyard MEM 5.3 1.3 3.5
20 Lester Quinones GS 4.6 1.9 1.2
21 Jake LaRavia MEM 4.4 1.7 0.8
22 John Konchar MEM 4.3 3.9 1.2
23 Jerome Robinson GS 3.4 1.7 0.7
24 Cory Joseph GS 3.2 1.6 1.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.