NBA games

SA @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
99–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA1618333299
ATL35341822109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home ATL
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 27 26 13 2
Jeremy Sochan S 38 23 8 4
Julian Champagnie S 20 15 1 1
Doug McDermott 15 6 1 0
Tre Jones S 30 6 1 12
Keldon Johnson 26 5 6 0
Dominick Barlow 17 4 7 1
Malaki Branham 10 4 0 0
Devin Vassell S 30 4 4 4
Cedi Osman 12 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 38 36 6 13
Jalen Johnson S 38 16 10 7
Clint Capela S 25 13 12 0
Dejounte Murray S 33 13 13 0
Saddiq Bey S 33 10 5 2
Onyeka Okongwu 23 7 6 1
Garrison Mathews 13 6 0 0
Bogdan Bogdanovic 26 5 2 1
Trent Forrest 12 3 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dejounte Murray · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:54 Q1
"Dejounte Murray makes 15-foot step back jumpshot (Jalen Johnson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trae Young ATL
16%
2 Jalen Johnson ATL
11%
3 Dejounte Murray ATL
10%
4 Saddiq Bey ATL
9%
5 Clint Capela ATL
9%
6 Victor Wembanyama SA
9%
7 Devin Vassell SA
8%
8 Dominick Barlow SA
8%
9 Jeremy Sochan SA
7%
10 Tre Jones SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
48%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 25.8 9.3 4.2
2 Trae Young ATL 25.5 3.7 11.1
3 Dejounte Murray ATL 24.7 5.0 4.2
4 Devin Vassell SA 19.4 4.2 4.3
5 Keldon Johnson SA 19.0 4.6 3.5
6 Jalen Johnson ATL 18.1 9.0 4.0
7 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 16.3 3.4 2.9
8 Tre Jones SA 13.6 4.9 5.3
9 Saddiq Bey ATL 13.3 6.7 1.9
10 Jeremy Sochan SA 13.2 5.1 3.5
11 Clint Capela ATL 11.0 10.3 1.3
12 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 10.0 6.7 1.5
13 Malaki Branham SA 9.0 2.9 2.8
14 Mamadi Diakite SA 8.2 3.3 0.9
15 Cedi Osman SA 7.2 3.4 2.2
16 Julian Champagnie SA 6.4 3.1 1.6
17 Dominick Barlow SA 6.0 5.1 1.7
18 Doug McDermott SA 5.8 1.5 1.0
19 Garrison Mathews ATL 4.8 1.7 1.0
20 Blake Wesley SA 4.7 2.7 1.9
21 Devonte' Graham SA 4.7 1.7 1.9
22 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 4.4 2.8 1.2
23 Trent Forrest ATL 4.2 2.3 1.7
24 Bruno Fernando ATL 4.2 3.1 0.7
25 AJ Griffin ATL 3.5 1.5 0.7
26 Seth Lundy ATL 3.4 1.5 0.7
27 Patty Mills ATL 3.2 1.4 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.