NBA games

DET @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
129–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET29343135129
WSH22402530117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home WSH
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alec Burks 29 34 2 2
Jaden Ivey S 32 24 7 6
Jalen Duren S 26 20 19 4
Isaiah Stewart S 38 16 6 4
Ausar Thompson 27 14 8 2
Marcus Sasser 11 6 2 4
James Wiseman 15 6 5 0
Kevin Knox II S 33 5 2 1
Killian Hayes S 24 4 1 6
Joe Harris 5 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyus Jones S 31 22 6 7
Kyle Kuzma S 33 21 8 4
Jordan Poole S 32 16 0 2
Deni Avdija S 28 12 2 4
Landry Shamet 14 11 0 0
Patrick Baldwin Jr. 13 9 3 1
Daniel Gafford S 26 8 6 3
Corey Kispert 15 8 2 3
Delon Wright 16 5 1 4
Anthony Gill 3 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Deni Avdija · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Deni Avdija makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH
11%
2 Jalen Duren DET
11%
3 Deni Avdija WSH
11%
4 Jordan Poole WSH
10%
5 Jaden Ivey DET
9%
6 Bojan Bogdanovic DET
9%
7 Daniel Gafford WSH
9%
8 Tyus Jones WSH
7%
9 Killian Hayes DET
7%
10 Isaiah Stewart DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
27%
Jumper
28%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH 23.4 6.0 4.9
2 Bojan Bogdanovic DET 21.9 5.0 3.9
3 Jaden Ivey DET 18.6 5.2 5.2
4 Jalen Duren DET 17.3 12.0 3.0
5 Alec Burks DET 16.8 3.4 1.9
6 Deni Avdija WSH 16.7 7.3 4.5
7 Jordan Poole WSH 16.6 2.8 4.2
8 Tyus Jones WSH 13.6 2.9 6.1
9 Corey Kispert WSH 11.8 2.4 1.9
10 Isaiah Stewart DET 11.5 6.4 2.8
11 Kevin Knox II DET 10.7 3.4 1.5
12 Daniel Gafford WSH 10.0 8.3 1.4
13 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 8.3 5.0 2.2
14 Stanley Umude DET 7.0 2.8 1.1
15 Killian Hayes DET 6.0 3.1 5.4
16 Delon Wright WSH 5.8 2.3 2.6
17 Landry Shamet WSH 5.7 1.2 1.3
18 Marcus Sasser DET 4.9 1.7 2.1
19 James Wiseman DET 4.8 4.2 0.6
20 Ausar Thompson DET 4.5 4.0 1.1
21 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 3.6 2.2 0.7
22 Joe Harris DET 3.2 1.3 0.6
23 Jules Bernard WSH 3.1 1.2 0.6
24 Anthony Gill WSH 2.4 1.7 0.4
25 Johnny Davis WSH 1.9 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.