NBA games

ORL @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
98–94
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL2426232598
NY2428261694

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home NY
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 33 20 6 3
Wendell Carter Jr. 19 17 3 0
Chuma Okeke S 26 15 3 0
Cole Anthony 26 15 4 5
Caleb Houstan S 21 7 1 0
Joe Ingles 20 6 1 4
Markelle Fultz 23 6 5 7
Jonathan Isaac 16 5 7 0
Jalen Suggs S 27 4 5 4
Goga Bitadze S 29 3 11 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles McBride S 36 20 2 1
OG Anunoby S 44 17 2 4
Julius Randle S 38 15 6 5
Donte DiVincenzo S 24 15 6 4
Quentin Grimes 14 8 2 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 29 7 12 3
Precious Achiuwa 20 6 5 1
Josh Hart 24 4 6 1
Malachi Flynn 12 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Chuma Okeke · Layup (2 pts) · 11:01 Q1
"Chuma Okeke makes driving layup (Paolo Banchero assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
12%
2 Julius Randle NY
12%
3 Paolo Banchero ORL
12%
4 OG Anunoby NY
11%
5 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
9%
6 Goga Bitadze ORL
8%
7 Jalen Suggs ORL
8%
8 Miles McBride NY
7%
9 Donte DiVincenzo NY
7%
10 Caleb Houstan ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
37%
Jumper
35%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Julius Randle NY 28.6 8.8 5.3
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 27.7 7.7 6.1
3 Jalen Brunson NY 26.5 4.0 7.5
4 OG Anunoby NY 15.5 4.7 2.0
5 Jalen Suggs ORL 15.2 3.6 2.6
6 Donte DiVincenzo NY 15.2 3.9 2.8
7 Cole Anthony ORL 10.4 3.7 2.3
8 Moritz Wagner ORL 9.7 5.6 1.7
9 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 9.6 10.9 2.8
10 Markelle Fultz ORL 9.3 3.3 3.4
11 Caleb Houstan ORL 8.9 2.5 1.5
12 Josh Hart NY 8.2 6.7 2.7
13 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 7.4 4.6 1.6
14 Quentin Grimes NY 7.3 2.4 1.1
15 Goga Bitadze ORL 7.0 7.0 1.3
16 Joe Ingles ORL 6.8 2.5 3.4
17 Evan Fournier NY 6.8 1.8 0.8
18 Chuma Okeke ORL 6.2 4.0 1.3
19 Miles McBride NY 6.2 1.7 1.3
20 Trevelin Queen ORL 5.9 2.1 1.5
21 Jonathan Isaac ORL 5.8 3.9 0.7
22 Anthony Black ORL 5.0 2.4 1.8
23 Precious Achiuwa NY 3.9 3.2 0.5
24 Malachi Flynn NY 3.8 1.7 1.3
25 Jericho Sims NY 2.0 1.3 0.2
26 Ryan Arcidiacono NY 1.5 0.7 0.3
27 DaQuan Jeffries NY 1.3 0.6 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.