NBA games

NO @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
120125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO17424021120
DAL33263333125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home DAL
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 32 30 1 3
CJ McCollum S 29 23 6 4
Trey Murphy III 22 14 3 0
Larry Nance Jr. 26 14 8 2
Brandon Ingram S 32 12 5 5
Herbert Jones S 29 10 3 3
Jordan Hawkins 21 9 1 0
Jonas Valanciunas S 19 6 6 2
Dyson Daniels 19 2 3 2
Naji Marshall 9 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyrie Irving S 41 42 7 7
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 41 41 2 2
Josh Green S 30 13 4 3
Grant Williams 31 7 3 7
Dereck Lively II S 26 6 12 1
Jaden Hardy 15 5 4 1
Maxi Kleber S 19 4 5 1
Dwight Powell 16 4 4 2
A.J. Lawson 14 3 1 0
Seth Curry 7 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyrie Irving · Free Throw (1 pts) · 10:14 Q1
"Kyrie Irving makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
10%
2 Brandon Ingram NO
10%
3 Kyrie Irving DAL
10%
4 Dereck Lively II DAL
9%
5 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL
8%
6 Naji Marshall NO
7%
7 Dwight Powell DAL
7%
8 Jonas Valanciunas NO
7%
9 Herbert Jones NO
6%
10 Dyson Daniels NO
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
40%
Jumper
28%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kyrie Irving DAL 24.8 5.9 5.5
2 Zion Williamson NO 23.0 6.8 5.2
3 Brandon Ingram NO 19.7 4.7 6.0
4 CJ McCollum NO 18.6 4.7 5.6
5 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 16.8 3.8 2.2
6 Jonas Valanciunas NO 12.9 9.7 2.0
7 Trey Murphy III NO 11.6 3.8 2.5
8 Herbert Jones NO 11.0 3.8 1.9
9 Jaden Hardy DAL 9.0 2.8 1.9
10 Dereck Lively II DAL 8.9 6.7 1.1
11 Josh Green DAL 8.8 3.0 2.5
12 Jordan Hawkins NO 8.3 2.1 1.2
13 Larry Nance Jr. NO 8.2 5.8 1.8
14 Naji Marshall NO 7.7 3.0 1.5
15 Jose Alvarado NO 7.6 2.7 1.7
16 Dyson Daniels NO 7.1 3.3 2.5
17 Dwight Powell DAL 6.5 5.5 2.6
18 Grant Williams DAL 6.5 3.1 1.4
19 Seth Curry DAL 5.3 1.6 1.0
20 A.J. Lawson DAL 5.3 2.0 1.0
21 Maxi Kleber DAL 4.2 2.9 1.1
22 Brandon Williams DAL 3.2 0.8 0.6
23 Markieff Morris DAL 2.9 1.6 0.8
24 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 2.7 2.1 0.8
25 Cody Zeller NO 2.6 2.0 0.9
26 Richaun Holmes DAL 2.6 2.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.