NBA games

HOU @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
115–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU19283038115
PHI33333226124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home PHI
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 27 20 5 3
Alperen Sengun S 30 19 9 6
Dillon Brooks S 31 18 6 0
Cam Whitmore 23 14 6 1
Amen Thompson 19 14 3 0
Jabari Smith Jr. S 31 13 7 2
Fred VanVleet S 33 8 1 5
Jock Landale 9 4 1 0
Jae'Sean Tate 13 2 4 2
Nate Williams 5 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 31 41 10 3
Tyrese Maxey S 35 27 1 7
Patrick Beverley 29 11 5 6
Tobias Harris S 31 10 3 2
Marcus Morris Sr. 14 8 5 1
Paul Reed 17 7 4 2
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 26 7 2 0
Danuel House Jr. 18 6 5 1
Nicolas Batum S 28 5 5 3
Furkan Korkmaz 6 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tobias Harris · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Tobias Harris makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
16%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
13%
3 Joel Embiid PHI
12%
4 Tobias Harris PHI
11%
5 Jalen Green HOU
10%
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
8%
7 Paul Reed PHI
8%
8 Dillon Brooks HOU
8%
9 Fred VanVleet HOU
8%
10 Nicolas Batum PHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
37%
Jumper
29%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 36.0 11.1 7.2
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 25.8 3.8 6.8
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 25.2 8.4 4.4
4 Tobias Harris PHI 24.0 6.5 4.5
5 Jalen Green HOU 20.7 5.0 3.8
6 Fred VanVleet HOU 19.1 4.0 8.0
7 Dillon Brooks HOU 13.4 3.8 1.9
8 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 13.0 4.1 2.0
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 12.7 8.5 1.4
10 Cam Whitmore HOU 10.5 3.8 1.1
11 Paul Reed PHI 8.3 5.6 1.6
12 Patrick Beverley PHI 7.5 3.4 2.8
13 Nicolas Batum PHI 7.3 3.7 2.6
14 Marcus Morris Sr. PHI 7.3 3.1 1.3
15 Jeff Green HOU 7.1 2.4 1.2
16 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 6.9 3.8 1.2
17 Amen Thompson HOU 6.6 3.9 2.5
18 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.7 2.1 1.5
19 Nate Williams HOU 5.3 2.1 0.7
20 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 4.1 1.7 0.7
21 Danuel House Jr. PHI 4.1 1.5 0.9
22 Boban Marjanovic HOU 3.5 2.9 0.7
23 Jock Landale HOU 3.2 2.6 0.5
24 KJ Martin PHI 3.0 1.2 0.7
25 Furkan Korkmaz PHI 2.5 0.9 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.