NBA games

PHX @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
127–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX31403521127
POR33283124116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home POR
71% 29%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 39 34 6 7
Bradley Beal S 37 23 4 5
Kevin Durant S 38 21 5 6
Grayson Allen S 33 20 4 1
Jusuf Nurkic S 27 14 13 1
Chimezie Metu 17 8 3 0
Keita Bates-Diop 13 4 2 3
Eric Gordon 24 3 2 4
Josh Okogie 7 0 1 0
Drew Eubanks 4 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scoot Henderson S 40 33 7 9
Anfernee Simons S 41 28 5 5
Duop Reath S 39 17 6 1
Kris Murray 37 13 1 3
Rayan Rupert 14 11 5 2
Jabari Walker S 29 11 8 1
Toumani Camara S 23 2 2 2
Justin Minaya 17 1 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jusuf Nurkic · Layup (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Jusuf Nurkic makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
12%
2 Bradley Beal PHX
11%
3 Jerami Grant POR
11%
4 Scoot Henderson POR
10%
5 Kevin Durant PHX
10%
6 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
9%
7 Anfernee Simons POR
8%
8 Toumani Camara POR
8%
9 Duop Reath POR
7%
10 Moses Brown POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
31%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 27.1 6.6 6.8
2 Devin Booker PHX 26.1 4.0 7.4
3 Anfernee Simons POR 21.2 3.9 5.1
4 Bradley Beal PHX 20.4 4.4 4.7
5 Jerami Grant POR 18.2 3.4 2.8
6 Scoot Henderson POR 17.2 4.1 6.4
7 Grayson Allen PHX 17.1 4.0 3.7
8 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 14.9 11.0 2.8
9 Malcolm Brogdon POR 14.5 3.3 4.6
10 Eric Gordon PHX 11.8 2.8 1.7
11 Jabari Walker POR 10.4 6.8 1.5
12 Duop Reath POR 9.3 5.5 1.1
13 Toumani Camara POR 9.0 5.5 1.4
14 Chimezie Metu PHX 8.3 4.7 1.2
15 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.9 2.4 1.2
16 Nassir Little PHX 5.4 2.8 1.0
17 Kris Murray POR 5.1 2.4 1.1
18 Josh Okogie PHX 5.0 2.0 1.7
19 Drew Eubanks PHX 4.3 3.9 0.5
20 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 4.2 2.0 1.0
21 Jordan Goodwin PHX 3.5 2.4 1.8
22 Yuta Watanabe PHX 3.4 1.4 0.7
23 Justin Minaya POR 3.3 1.8 0.7
24 Rayan Rupert POR 3.3 1.6 0.9
25 Saben Lee PHX 3.0 1.5 0.8
26 Moses Brown POR 1.7 3.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.