NBA games

LAC @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
105–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC19262337105
MIN29173528109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home MIN
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 37 26 9 4
Norman Powell 30 24 1 0
Paul George S 42 16 4 3
James Harden S 36 14 1 8
Russell Westbrook 29 12 8 13
Mason Plumlee 16 8 3 0
Daniel Theis S 22 3 4 0
Terance Mann S 19 2 3 0
Amir Coffey 9 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 38 33 9 6
Karl-Anthony Towns S 37 17 6 5
Rudy Gobert S 37 15 18 0
Jaden McDaniels S 35 14 4 4
Kyle Anderson 27 10 1 3
Naz Reid 14 8 1 1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 20 6 0 1
Mike Conley S 32 6 2 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Daniel Theis · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:16 Q1
"Daniel Theis makes 24-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Rudy Gobert MIN
13%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
12%
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC
12%
4 Ivica Zubac LAC
11%
5 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
10%
6 Terance Mann LAC
9%
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN
9%
8 James Harden LAC
8%
9 Paul George LAC
8%
10 Mike Conley MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
28%
Free Throw
41%
Jumper
11%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 26.8 5.0 4.8
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 24.1 6.2 3.6
3 Paul George LAC 21.7 5.0 3.2
4 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 21.7 7.3 3.6
5 James Harden LAC 17.8 4.6 9.0
6 Rudy Gobert MIN 14.8 11.2 1.3
7 Ivica Zubac LAC 12.8 10.5 1.7
8 Naz Reid MIN 12.5 5.8 1.7
9 Norman Powell LAC 11.7 3.1 1.3
10 Mike Conley MIN 10.6 2.8 6.5
11 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.3 2.9 1.6
12 Russell Westbrook LAC 9.4 3.9 3.7
13 Terance Mann LAC 9.0 2.9 1.4
14 Kyle Anderson MIN 6.9 3.5 3.0
15 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 6.4 2.0 2.1
16 Amir Coffey LAC 6.3 1.9 1.0
17 Daniel Theis LAC 6.0 3.2 0.9
18 Leonard Miller MIN 5.2 3.3 0.8
19 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 4.4 1.6 2.3
20 Mason Plumlee LAC 4.2 4.2 0.9
21 Brandon Boston LAC 4.2 1.3 0.6
22 P.J. Tucker LAC 3.3 2.0 0.8
23 Shake Milton MIN 3.3 1.0 0.8
24 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 3.0 1.3 0.9
25 Bones Hyland LAC 2.9 0.8 0.8
26 Josh Minott MIN 2.6 1.3 0.5
27 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 2.3 1.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.