NBA games

SAC @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
142–143
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
SAC3729253714142
MIL3236273315143

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home MIL
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 43 32 2 5
Malik Monk 36 28 7 7
Kevin Huerter S 39 26 10 3
Domantas Sabonis S 45 21 13 15
Harrison Barnes S 32 14 1 1
Trey Lyles 33 9 7 2
Sasha Vezenkov 6 4 1 0
Alex Len 11 4 5 1
Keegan Murray S 19 4 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Damian Lillard S 41 29 4 8
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 40 27 10 10
Malik Beasley S 45 23 4 5
Bobby Portis 26 22 10 1
Brook Lopez S 40 17 9 3
Cameron Payne 12 15 0 1
Pat Connaughton 33 5 3 2
AJ Green 18 5 0 0
Andre Jackson Jr. S 10 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Domantas Sabonis · Layup (2 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Domantas Sabonis makes layup (De'Aaron Fox assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
15%
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC
13%
3 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
13%
4 Damian Lillard MIL
12%
5 Keegan Murray SAC
10%
6 Brook Lopez MIL
9%
7 Harrison Barnes SAC
7%
8 Chris Duarte SAC
7%
9 Kevin Huerter SAC
7%
10 Malik Beasley MIL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
30%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 31.7 11.6 7.6
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC 25.6 12.9 10.2
3 De'Aaron Fox SAC 25.0 4.1 5.4
4 Damian Lillard MIL 23.6 3.9 6.6
5 Malik Monk SAC 19.1 3.2 6.1
6 Keegan Murray SAC 15.6 5.8 1.9
7 Brook Lopez MIL 12.5 6.1 1.9
8 Malik Beasley MIL 10.9 3.0 1.2
9 Bobby Portis MIL 10.8 6.1 1.2
10 Harrison Barnes SAC 8.7 2.4 1.2
11 Trey Lyles SAC 8.6 3.8 1.5
12 Pat Connaughton MIL 5.9 2.6 1.5
13 Chris Duarte SAC 5.7 2.5 1.4
14 Cameron Payne MIL 5.4 1.5 2.1
15 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 5.4 2.3 1.1
16 Kevin Huerter SAC 5.1 2.1 1.4
17 AJ Green MIL 4.7 1.3 0.9
18 TyTy Washington Jr. MIL 4.6 1.6 1.9
19 JaVale McGee SAC 4.2 3.0 0.8
20 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 4.1 2.8 0.8
21 Keon Ellis SAC 4.1 1.6 1.1
22 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.8 2.7 1.0
23 Kessler Edwards SAC 3.7 1.3 0.6
24 Davion Mitchell SAC 3.7 1.4 1.1
25 Alex Len SAC 3.6 3.9 1.4
26 Juan Toscano-Anderson SAC 2.8 1.6 0.6
27 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.4 1.2 0.7
28 Robin Lopez MIL 1.6 0.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.