NBA games

CHA @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
87–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA1615302687
MIA26262527104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home MIA
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Terry Rozier S 35 26 5 7
LaMelo Ball S 30 21 10 5
Miles Bridges S 38 20 7 1
P.J. Washington 28 5 6 1
Nick Smith Jr. 16 4 2 0
Cody Martin S 23 3 2 2
Nate Mensah 11 2 2 0
Nick Richards S 27 2 8 0
Bryce McGowens 5 2 2 0
James Bouknight 2 1 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 35 24 10 7
Tyler Herro S 28 21 7 4
Duncan Robinson 30 19 4 5
Jaime Jaquez Jr. S 15 15 5 2
Josh Richardson 20 11 2 0
Haywood Highsmith 31 7 2 2
Nikola Jovic S 28 5 7 2
Caleb Martin 25 2 3 2
Orlando Robinson 2 0 0 0
Kyle Lowry S 26 0 4 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaime Jaquez Jr. · Layup (2 pts) · 10:03 Q1
"Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
11%
2 Terry Rozier CHA
11%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
11%
4 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
9%
5 Tyler Herro MIA
8%
6 Nick Richards CHA
8%
7 LaMelo Ball CHA
8%
8 Kyle Lowry MIA
6%
9 Brandon Miller CHA
6%
10 Nikola Jovic MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
42%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LaMelo Ball CHA 27.5 5.5 7.9
2 Terry Rozier CHA 25.2 4.3 6.5
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 23.7 11.7 5.0
4 Tyler Herro MIA 23.6 5.8 5.4
5 Miles Bridges CHA 22.4 6.9 4.1
6 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 19.1 4.6 3.5
7 Duncan Robinson MIA 13.8 2.9 3.5
8 Caleb Martin MIA 12.9 6.0 2.9
9 Brandon Miller CHA 12.0 3.2 2.1
10 Kevin Love MIA 11.0 6.0 2.6
11 P.J. Washington CHA 10.6 4.4 1.9
12 Josh Richardson MIA 10.4 3.1 2.6
13 Kyle Lowry MIA 10.2 2.6 3.5
14 Nick Richards CHA 10.1 9.0 1.4
15 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 8.8 2.8 1.9
16 Cody Martin CHA 8.0 2.7 1.7
17 Nikola Jovic MIA 6.9 3.9 2.5
18 Haywood Highsmith MIA 6.4 3.4 1.3
19 Bryce McGowens CHA 6.1 2.1 1.4
20 Ish Smith CHA 5.3 2.4 3.8
21 JT Thor CHA 4.5 2.9 0.6
22 Orlando Robinson MIA 4.4 2.8 1.2
23 James Bouknight CHA 4.2 1.3 0.8
24 Thomas Bryant MIA 3.5 3.0 0.5
25 Nate Mensah CHA 3.2 2.9 0.6
26 Leaky Black CHA 2.7 1.5 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.