NBA games

IND @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
109–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND28292725109
DEN28322928117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home DEN
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bruce Brown S 33 18 10 6
Buddy Hield S 28 16 2 1
Bennedict Mathurin 22 12 3 2
Myles Turner S 26 12 4 1
Andrew Nembhard S 29 12 2 7
Isaiah Jackson 20 12 7 1
Obi Toppin 25 11 3 1
Jalen Smith S 25 8 3 3
T.J. McConnell 19 5 2 5
Jordan Nwora 13 3 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 36 25 1 8
Nikola Jokic S 33 25 12 9
Michael Porter Jr. S 37 25 8 5
Aaron Gordon S 37 20 10 3
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 37 11 2 1
Reggie Jackson 23 9 0 4
Christian Braun 15 2 2 0
DeAndre Jordan 7 0 2 1
Peyton Watson 14 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jamal Murray · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Jamal Murray makes driving layup (Michael Porter Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jamal Murray DEN
15%
2 Aaron Gordon DEN
15%
3 Myles Turner IND
13%
4 Nikola Jokic DEN
11%
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
10%
6 Bruce Brown IND
9%
7 Jalen Smith IND
9%
8 Andrew Nembhard IND
9%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
9%
10 Bennedict Mathurin IND
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
30%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 25.2 11.7 9.0
2 Jamal Murray DEN 24.1 4.6 6.8
3 Bennedict Mathurin IND 17.9 4.3 2.1
4 Myles Turner IND 17.7 6.8 2.1
5 Aaron Gordon DEN 15.7 5.2 2.1
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 15.5 5.5 1.4
7 Bruce Brown IND 11.9 4.0 2.9
8 Obi Toppin IND 11.0 5.1 2.1
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 10.7 3.1 2.6
10 Andrew Nembhard IND 10.3 2.4 3.9
11 Buddy Hield IND 9.8 3.2 1.9
12 Jalen Smith IND 9.5 5.3 1.4
13 Peyton Watson DEN 9.2 3.3 1.0
14 Reggie Jackson DEN 8.5 2.1 3.6
15 T.J. McConnell IND 7.9 2.7 5.6
16 Christian Braun DEN 6.6 3.4 1.3
17 Isaiah Jackson IND 6.2 4.1 0.9
18 DeAndre Jordan DEN 5.1 5.8 0.9
19 Jordan Nwora IND 4.6 1.5 0.9
20 Justin Holiday DEN 4.2 1.5 1.1
21 Jay Huff DEN 3.2 1.9 0.6
22 Ben Sheppard IND 3.1 1.2 0.7
23 Collin Gillespie DEN 3.1 1.2 0.7
24 Oscar Tshiebwe IND 3.0 1.4 0.5
25 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.0 2.0 0.7
26 Jarace Walker IND 2.7 0.9 0.7
27 Braxton Key DEN 2.6 1.4 0.6
28 Kendall Brown IND 2.5 1.4 0.6
29 James Johnson IND 1.4 0.8 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.