NBA games

LAL @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
125–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL39282830125
UTAH31333632132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home UTAH
20% 80%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
D'Angelo Russell S 41 39 3 8
Austin Reaves S 31 19 4 2
Rui Hachimura 19 17 3 1
Anthony Davis S 39 15 15 11
Christian Wood 22 15 9 1
Taurean Prince S 30 12 1 1
Jarred Vanderbilt 23 5 3 1
Max Christie 14 3 0 3
Skylar Mays 10 0 1 2
Cam Reddish S 11 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 33 29 9 5
Collin Sexton S 28 27 4 5
Jordan Clarkson 31 21 4 4
Keyonte George 27 19 3 3
John Collins S 34 19 13 2
Kris Dunn S 17 7 0 3
Kelly Olynyk 15 4 5 2
Walker Kessler 14 4 6 0
Ochai Agbaji 18 2 4 0
Simone Fontecchio S 24 0 4 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kris Dunn · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Kris Dunn makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
19%
2 Collin Sexton UTAH
12%
3 Austin Reaves LAL
11%
4 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
11%
5 John Collins UTAH
8%
6 Kris Dunn UTAH
8%
7 Taurean Prince LAL
8%
8 Rui Hachimura LAL
8%
9 Simone Fontecchio UTAH
7%
10 Cam Reddish LAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
64%
Jumper
8%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Davis LAL 27.9 10.8 4.5
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 22.3 8.5 2.6
3 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 21.0 4.1 6.5
4 Collin Sexton UTAH 20.9 3.2 5.6
5 Austin Reaves LAL 16.0 3.3 5.8
6 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 14.8 2.5 3.6
7 D'Angelo Russell LAL 12.9 2.2 5.3
8 John Collins UTAH 12.8 6.2 1.8
9 Rui Hachimura LAL 11.2 3.5 1.2
10 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 11.1 4.0 1.8
11 Keyonte George UTAH 11.1 3.0 3.5
12 Taurean Prince LAL 10.1 3.4 1.9
13 Kelly Olynyk UTAH 9.5 4.3 4.7
14 Walker Kessler UTAH 9.1 6.7 1.0
15 Christian Wood LAL 7.8 4.7 1.3
16 Cam Reddish LAL 7.5 2.2 1.9
17 Max Christie LAL 6.8 3.8 1.4
18 Kris Dunn UTAH 6.4 3.7 4.8
19 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 5.7 4.5 1.4
20 Ochai Agbaji UTAH 4.9 2.7 1.1
21 Skylar Mays LAL 4.7 1.7 1.4
22 Luka Samanic UTAH 4.1 2.3 0.6
23 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 4.0 4.8 0.9
24 Jaxson Hayes LAL 3.5 2.4 0.6
25 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 3.2 1.5 0.7
26 Colin Castleton LAL 3.1 2.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.