NBA games

CHI @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
122–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI35283128122
SA23323922116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home SA
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Vucevic S 31 24 16 5
Ayo Dosunmu 29 21 2 4
DeMar DeRozan S 34 20 4 4
Coby White S 32 15 2 4
Jevon Carter 24 14 1 0
Alex Caruso S 33 11 6 6
Zach LaVine S 36 10 6 7
Andre Drummond 17 7 10 1
Dalen Terry 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tre Jones S 32 30 9 4
Keldon Johnson 30 26 4 5
Malaki Branham 22 14 1 1
Jeremy Sochan S 31 11 7 2
Cedi Osman 23 9 2 1
Sandro Mamukelashvili 18 8 8 1
Julian Champagnie S 17 6 5 4
Devin Vassell S 34 5 4 2
Dominick Barlow S 22 5 6 3
Blake Wesley 11 2 1 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zach LaVine · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Zach LaVine makes 22-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zach LaVine CHI
14%
2 Devin Vassell SA
13%
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI
12%
4 DeMar DeRozan CHI
12%
5 Coby White CHI
11%
6 Tre Jones SA
10%
7 Alex Caruso CHI
10%
8 Jeremy Sochan SA
9%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
10 Torrey Craig CHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
32%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
25%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI 23.9 4.6 5.5
2 Coby White CHI 23.5 5.2 5.5
3 Zach LaVine CHI 20.9 5.8 5.3
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 20.0 10.2 3.8
5 Devin Vassell SA 18.8 3.6 4.4
6 Keldon Johnson SA 18.1 4.8 3.1
7 Jeremy Sochan SA 13.9 5.4 3.5
8 Andre Drummond CHI 11.9 11.4 1.2
9 Patrick Williams CHI 11.8 3.4 2.2
10 Tre Jones SA 11.2 3.9 4.9
11 Alex Caruso CHI 11.1 4.1 2.8
12 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 11.0 3.8 2.2
13 Malaki Branham SA 8.8 3.1 2.7
14 Mamadi Diakite SA 7.8 3.1 0.8
15 Torrey Craig CHI 7.0 3.2 0.9
16 Cedi Osman SA 6.3 2.9 2.0
17 Julian Champagnie SA 6.2 3.0 1.3
18 Dominick Barlow SA 5.1 4.1 1.2
19 Dalen Terry CHI 4.9 2.2 1.5
20 Jevon Carter CHI 4.8 1.3 0.9
21 Devonte' Graham SA 4.4 1.6 1.7
22 Blake Wesley SA 3.9 1.8 1.6
23 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.5 2.0 1.1
24 Terry Taylor CHI 2.4 1.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.