NBA games

NO @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
118–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO29203930118
DAL20342727108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home DAL
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Hawkins S 37 34 5 4
Herbert Jones S 32 15 5 3
Jonas Valanciunas S 28 14 12 7
Larry Nance Jr. 20 14 2 3
Jose Alvarado 26 14 2 4
Naji Marshall S 31 13 6 1
Dyson Daniels S 38 10 6 7
Kira Lewis Jr. 7 2 2 0
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 22 2 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyrie Irving S 40 33 5 6
Derrick Jones Jr. S 28 24 4 1
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 39 24 4 0
Josh Green S 32 9 6 4
Jaden Hardy 23 8 2 1
Seth Curry 12 3 0 0
A.J. Lawson 6 3 1 1
Dwight Powell S 34 2 9 8
Maxi Kleber 11 2 2 1
Grant Williams 14 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Josh Green · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Josh Green makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kyrie Irving assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyrie Irving DAL
21%
2 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL
14%
3 Dwight Powell DAL
14%
4 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
13%
5 Jonas Valanciunas NO
13%
6 Herbert Jones NO
12%
7 Josh Green DAL
12%
8 Trey Murphy III NO
0%
9 Jaden Hardy DAL
0%
10 Naji Marshall NO
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
35%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kyrie Irving DAL 24.9 5.8 5.2
2 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 17.1 3.9 2.5
3 Jonas Valanciunas NO 13.1 9.6 1.9
4 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 11.9 4.7 1.3
5 Trey Murphy III NO 11.8 3.8 2.5
6 Herbert Jones NO 10.4 3.5 1.9
7 Josh Green DAL 9.1 2.9 2.6
8 Jaden Hardy DAL 8.9 3.0 1.8
9 Grant Williams DAL 7.0 3.1 1.5
10 Naji Marshall NO 6.9 2.9 1.4
11 Larry Nance Jr. NO 6.8 5.8 1.6
12 Dyson Daniels NO 6.5 3.1 2.0
13 Jose Alvarado NO 6.4 2.6 1.4
14 Jordan Hawkins NO 6.0 1.8 0.9
15 Dwight Powell DAL 5.7 4.5 2.0
16 Seth Curry DAL 5.0 1.6 1.0
17 Maxi Kleber DAL 4.2 2.9 1.1
18 A.J. Lawson DAL 4.2 1.5 0.6
19 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 3.4 2.4 0.6
20 Markieff Morris DAL 3.4 1.8 0.9
21 Brandon Williams DAL 3.3 0.8 0.6
22 E.J. Liddell NO 3.2 2.1 0.7
23 Cody Zeller NO 3.1 2.2 1.1
24 Richaun Holmes DAL 2.6 2.9 0.5
25 Kira Lewis Jr. NO 2.1 0.8 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.