NBA games

ORL @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
100–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL21193327100
OKC23263726112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home OKC
22% 78%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 36 20 9 8
Caleb Houstan S 35 14 3 2
Cole Anthony 25 14 4 2
Anthony Black 33 13 4 1
Jalen Suggs S 20 9 4 0
Goga Bitadze S 22 8 9 2
Trevelin Queen 17 7 4 1
Jonathan Isaac 15 6 5 1
Chuma Okeke S 19 5 4 2
Moritz Wagner 18 4 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 36 37 6 7
Jalen Williams S 33 16 6 2
Chet Holmgren S 32 15 8 3
Luguentz Dort S 32 12 3 2
Josh Giddey S 27 12 8 4
Isaiah Joe 16 9 2 1
Vasilije Micic 11 7 2 1
Kenrich Williams 16 3 5 2
Cason Wallace 20 1 3 0
Ousmane Dieng 9 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · Layup (2 pts) · 11:02 Q1
"Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
14%
2 Chet Holmgren OKC
12%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
12%
4 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
10%
5 Goga Bitadze ORL
10%
6 Josh Giddey OKC
9%
7 Jalen Suggs ORL
9%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
9 Chuma Okeke ORL
8%
10 Caleb Houstan ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
65%
Jumper
13%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.9 6.1 7.4
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 27.0 7.6 6.2
3 Jalen Williams OKC 22.3 5.0 6.0
4 Chet Holmgren OKC 21.5 5.8 3.3
5 Jalen Suggs ORL 15.7 3.6 2.6
6 Josh Giddey OKC 13.9 6.4 5.5
7 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.4 4.0 1.5
8 Moritz Wagner ORL 10.6 5.7 1.6
9 Cole Anthony ORL 10.4 4.0 2.4
10 Caleb Houstan ORL 8.0 2.5 1.4
11 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 7.6 4.9 1.6
12 Isaiah Joe OKC 6.8 1.9 1.1
13 Goga Bitadze ORL 6.7 6.6 1.3
14 Cason Wallace OKC 6.7 2.6 1.4
15 Trevelin Queen ORL 6.0 2.0 1.7
16 Anthony Black ORL 5.8 2.6 1.9
17 Chuma Okeke ORL 5.6 3.8 1.2
18 Ousmane Dieng OKC 5.0 1.6 0.9
19 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.0 2.4 1.5
20 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.0 2.4 0.8
21 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.3 3.2 0.3
22 Tre Mann OKC 4.1 2.0 1.6
23 Vasilije Micic OKC 3.8 1.7 2.7
24 Keyontae Johnson OKC 3.8 1.3 0.6
25 Jaylin Williams OKC 3.1 2.7 1.3
26 Davis Bertans OKC 2.7 0.9 0.5
27 Admiral Schofield ORL 1.3 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.