NBA games

GS @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
118–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS24322537118
MIL33212946129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home MIL
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jonathan Kuminga 30 28 3 2
Brandin Podziemski S 36 23 10 3
Klay Thompson S 36 21 3 3
Dario Saric S 34 12 6 6
Trayce Jackson-Davis 18 12 2 1
Andrew Wiggins S 32 7 4 1
Lester Quinones 18 6 4 2
Kevon Looney S 18 6 6 3
Cory Joseph 18 3 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 37 33 9 5
Damian Lillard S 38 27 6 7
Khris Middleton S 33 24 3 10
Malik Beasley S 29 11 4 1
Brook Lopez S 34 11 8 6
Bobby Portis 21 10 8 0
Andre Jackson Jr. 28 10 10 2
Pat Connaughton 22 3 2 2
Chris Livingston 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Khris Middleton · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Khris Middleton makes 23-foot step back jumpshot (Damian Lillard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Damian Lillard MIL
15%
2 Khris Middleton MIL
14%
3 Brook Lopez MIL
10%
4 Kevon Looney GS
10%
5 Klay Thompson GS
9%
6 Andrew Wiggins GS
9%
7 Draymond Green GS
9%
8 Dario Saric GS
9%
9 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
8%
10 Malik Beasley MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
29%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 31.8 11.3 8.3
2 Damian Lillard MIL 23.5 3.9 6.7
3 Khris Middleton MIL 20.3 3.9 7.2
4 Klay Thompson GS 17.8 3.6 3.2
5 Jonathan Kuminga GS 16.0 5.5 3.2
6 Bobby Portis MIL 12.2 6.4 1.3
7 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 11.9 6.6 1.6
8 Brook Lopez MIL 11.8 5.8 1.6
9 Draymond Green GS 11.1 5.8 5.5
10 Brandin Podziemski GS 10.8 5.7 4.5
11 Andrew Wiggins GS 10.7 3.6 2.2
12 Malik Beasley MIL 10.7 3.1 1.3
13 Dario Saric GS 9.2 5.0 2.6
14 Kevon Looney GS 6.2 5.1 1.7
15 Pat Connaughton MIL 6.1 2.8 1.5
16 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 5.5 2.3 1.1
17 Cameron Payne MIL 5.5 1.5 2.2
18 AJ Green MIL 4.8 1.2 0.9
19 TyTy Washington Jr. MIL 4.7 1.6 2.0
20 Lester Quinones GS 4.3 1.6 1.1
21 Jerome Robinson GS 3.4 1.7 0.7
22 Chris Livingston MIL 3.3 1.5 0.8
23 Cory Joseph GS 2.9 1.4 1.3
24 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.8 1.9 1.1
25 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.3 1.2 0.7
26 Usman Garuba GS 1.7 0.9 0.3
27 Robin Lopez MIL 1.7 0.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.