NBA games

NY @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
106–94
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY25283023106
MEM2730152294

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home MEM
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 36 24 11 5
Miles McBride S 38 19 6 5
OG Anunoby S 32 18 5 2
Donte DiVincenzo S 33 13 3 4
Isaiah Hartenstein S 42 12 20 2
Malachi Flynn 10 9 1 3
Josh Hart 29 8 7 3
Quentin Grimes 15 3 2 1
Precious Achiuwa 6 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
GG Jackson 27 20 6 1
Vince Williams Jr. S 36 17 8 8
David Roddy S 35 14 4 1
Luke Kennard S 33 14 3 2
Xavier Tillman S 36 12 5 5
Ziaire Williams 20 10 4 2
Jacob Gilyard S 32 5 2 7
Jake LaRavia 1 2 0 0
John Konchar 20 0 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Vince Williams Jr. · Layup (2 pts) · 11:48 Q1
"Vince Williams Jr. makes layup (Jacob Gilyard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
13%
2 Desmond Bane MEM
12%
3 Julius Randle NY
12%
4 OG Anunoby NY
11%
5 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
11%
6 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
10%
7 Xavier Tillman MEM
8%
8 Donte DiVincenzo NY
8%
9 Luke Kennard MEM
7%
10 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
43%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Julius Randle NY 28.8 8.4 4.7
2 Jalen Brunson NY 26.4 3.9 8.0
3 Desmond Bane MEM 23.1 4.5 5.9
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 20.1 5.6 2.3
5 OG Anunoby NY 15.3 4.6 2.3
6 Donte DiVincenzo NY 14.3 3.8 2.9
7 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 9.8 10.4 3.0
8 Josh Hart NY 8.6 7.1 2.8
9 Luke Kennard MEM 8.5 2.8 2.2
10 Ziaire Williams MEM 8.4 2.7 1.4
11 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 8.1 5.8 2.4
12 Quentin Grimes NY 7.5 2.5 1.2
13 Evan Fournier NY 7.0 1.9 0.8
14 David Roddy MEM 6.5 2.3 1.6
15 Xavier Tillman MEM 6.1 5.2 1.2
16 Santi Aldama MEM 6.1 3.8 1.1
17 Miles McBride NY 5.2 1.5 1.2
18 Jacob Gilyard MEM 5.1 1.1 3.1
19 Jake LaRavia MEM 4.6 1.7 0.8
20 John Konchar MEM 4.5 3.6 1.2
21 Precious Achiuwa NY 4.3 3.7 0.6
22 GG Jackson MEM 4.2 1.8 0.6
23 Malachi Flynn NY 3.1 1.6 1.0
24 Jericho Sims NY 2.2 1.5 0.3
25 Ryan Arcidiacono NY 1.7 0.9 0.4
26 Charlie Brown Jr. NY 1.5 0.3 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.