NBA games

WSH @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
127–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH30284128127
ATL2522242899

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home ATL
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 27 29 6 4
Jordan Poole S 26 20 2 2
Deni Avdija S 37 19 14 9
Bilal Coulibaly 28 12 6 3
Corey Kispert 18 11 4 2
Daniel Gafford S 30 10 6 0
Delon Wright 22 8 2 4
Patrick Baldwin Jr. 18 8 9 0
Tyus Jones S 26 8 3 7
Hamidou Diallo 4 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 36 21 2 10
Saddiq Bey S 27 16 7 0
Bogdan Bogdanovic 24 14 3 2
Dejounte Murray S 31 13 5 3
Onyeka Okongwu 19 9 10 1
Garrison Mathews 15 8 2 1
Jalen Johnson S 36 5 6 3
Clint Capela S 24 4 8 0
Bruno Fernando 5 4 2 0
Trent Forrest 13 4 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Johnson · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:29 Q1
"Jalen Johnson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dejounte Murray ATL
13%
2 Trae Young ATL
12%
3 Jalen Johnson ATL
11%
4 Kyle Kuzma WSH
10%
5 Tyus Jones WSH
9%
6 Saddiq Bey ATL
9%
7 Clint Capela ATL
9%
8 Jordan Poole WSH
9%
9 Daniel Gafford WSH
9%
10 Deni Avdija WSH
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
27%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
36%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 26.7 4.0 11.6
2 Dejounte Murray ATL 25.2 5.3 4.8
3 Kyle Kuzma WSH 21.2 6.6 4.8
4 Jalen Johnson ATL 18.5 9.4 4.1
5 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 16.9 3.7 3.2
6 Jordan Poole WSH 16.8 3.1 4.2
7 Deni Avdija WSH 14.9 6.7 4.0
8 Tyus Jones WSH 14.0 3.2 6.0
9 Saddiq Bey ATL 13.7 7.6 2.1
10 Clint Capela ATL 12.2 11.8 1.5
11 Corey Kispert WSH 12.0 2.4 1.7
12 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 11.2 7.5 1.6
13 Daniel Gafford WSH 10.2 8.5 1.5
14 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 7.8 5.1 2.0
15 Landry Shamet WSH 5.8 1.5 1.3
16 Delon Wright WSH 5.5 2.3 2.5
17 Mike Muscala WSH 4.9 3.7 1.1
18 Danilo Gallinari WSH 4.3 2.3 0.7
19 Bruno Fernando ATL 4.0 3.4 0.7
20 Trent Forrest ATL 3.9 2.5 1.8
21 Seth Lundy ATL 3.8 2.0 0.8
22 Garrison Mathews ATL 3.7 1.7 0.8
23 AJ Griffin ATL 3.6 1.8 0.8
24 Patty Mills ATL 3.5 1.8 0.9
25 Jules Bernard WSH 3.2 1.6 0.7
26 Anthony Gill WSH 2.4 2.1 0.4
27 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 2.0 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.