NBA games

HOU @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
113–145
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU31272827113
BOS35344333145

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home BOS
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Whitmore 28 22 7 0
Alperen Sengun S 24 19 10 3
Dillon Brooks S 25 12 1 0
Amen Thompson 25 10 10 3
Jalen Green S 20 10 3 1
Jabari Smith Jr. S 27 9 6 2
Jeff Green 14 9 1 1
Fred VanVleet S 23 5 1 7
Nate Williams 9 5 2 0
Aaron Holiday 9 5 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 28 32 6 2
Jayson Tatum S 30 27 8 5
Payton Pritchard 23 19 4 3
Kristaps Porzingis S 28 17 7 5
Derrick White S 25 13 3 5
Jrue Holiday S 26 11 6 3
Al Horford 20 7 4 1
Svi Mykhailiuk 9 6 1 0
Sam Hauser 20 6 6 0
Oshae Brissett 9 5 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alperen Sengun · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Alperen Sengun makes 15-foot two point shot (Fred VanVleet assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
10%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
10%
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
10%
4 Derrick White BOS
9%
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
9%
6 Jalen Green HOU
9%
7 Jayson Tatum BOS
8%
8 Jrue Holiday BOS
8%
9 Fred VanVleet HOU
7%
10 Dillon Brooks HOU
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
34%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 27.1 7.1 5.8
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 26.0 8.5 4.7
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 24.8 6.1 3.9
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 21.0 7.3 2.7
5 Fred VanVleet HOU 19.9 4.0 8.4
6 Jalen Green HOU 19.1 4.8 3.8
7 Derrick White BOS 15.6 4.4 5.2
8 Jrue Holiday BOS 15.0 5.6 5.0
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 13.8 8.5 1.5
10 Dillon Brooks HOU 12.0 3.5 1.7
11 Al Horford BOS 9.9 6.5 3.3
12 Payton Pritchard BOS 9.4 3.2 3.1
13 Cam Whitmore HOU 8.4 3.1 0.9
14 Sam Hauser BOS 7.2 3.5 1.3
15 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 6.8 3.7 1.3
16 Jeff Green HOU 6.4 2.3 1.1
17 Aaron Holiday HOU 6.3 2.2 1.5
18 Luke Kornet BOS 5.7 4.0 1.1
19 Amen Thompson HOU 5.6 3.3 2.1
20 Oshae Brissett BOS 5.6 3.8 1.0
21 Nate Williams HOU 4.9 1.7 0.7
22 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 3.8 1.5 0.7
23 Lamar Stevens BOS 3.7 2.3 0.7
24 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 3.5 1.5 0.8
25 Dalano Banton BOS 3.5 1.9 0.9
26 Boban Marjanovic HOU 2.2 2.1 0.5
27 Jock Landale HOU 2.0 1.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.