NBA games

CHA @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
99–135
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA2223262899
SA28383732135

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home SA
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 27 28 3 5
Terry Rozier S 28 16 2 2
Miles Bridges S 33 14 9 0
Nick Richards S 22 12 8 1
Bryce McGowens 24 12 0 0
Nick Smith Jr. 25 9 6 5
JT Thor 19 5 4 0
Leaky Black 7 2 0 0
Brandon Miller S 9 1 2 1
James Bouknight 6 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 20 26 11 1
Doug McDermott 12 14 2 0
Jeremy Sochan S 26 13 6 4
Devin Vassell S 26 12 3 5
Cedi Osman 14 11 4 1
Keldon Johnson 19 10 2 1
Julian Champagnie S 21 9 2 1
Devonte' Graham 10 8 0 2
Mamadi Diakite 10 8 0 1
Malaki Branham 20 8 2 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Terry Rozier · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Terry Rozier makes 10-foot two point shot (LaMelo Ball assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Terry Rozier CHA
14%
2 LaMelo Ball CHA
11%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
11%
4 Victor Wembanyama SA
10%
5 Nick Richards CHA
8%
6 Devin Vassell SA
8%
7 Tre Jones SA
7%
8 Brandon Miller CHA
7%
9 Jeremy Sochan SA
6%
10 Bryce McGowens CHA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
42%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LaMelo Ball CHA 29.3 5.9 8.7
2 Terry Rozier CHA 25.1 4.4 6.7
3 Victor Wembanyama SA 24.4 9.2 4.4
4 Miles Bridges CHA 24.1 6.6 4.4
5 Devin Vassell SA 21.0 3.9 4.0
6 Keldon Johnson SA 19.9 5.8 3.3
7 Brandon Miller CHA 14.1 3.6 2.7
8 Jeremy Sochan SA 14.0 5.4 3.6
9 Tre Jones SA 12.1 3.9 5.0
10 Nick Richards CHA 10.2 9.5 1.5
11 Malaki Branham SA 9.4 3.2 2.9
12 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 8.8 2.5 1.7
13 Cody Martin CHA 8.7 2.9 1.8
14 Mamadi Diakite SA 8.1 3.9 0.8
15 Cedi Osman SA 6.3 2.7 2.4
16 Julian Champagnie SA 5.9 2.9 1.2
17 Ish Smith CHA 5.8 2.4 3.9
18 Bryce McGowens CHA 5.6 2.1 1.5
19 Doug McDermott SA 5.5 1.4 1.0
20 Dominick Barlow SA 4.6 3.5 1.2
21 James Bouknight CHA 4.5 1.3 0.9
22 JT Thor CHA 4.1 2.8 0.6
23 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.9 2.4 1.4
24 Nate Mensah CHA 3.7 3.3 0.6
25 Blake Wesley SA 3.7 1.6 1.7
26 Devonte' Graham SA 3.3 1.1 1.4
27 Leaky Black CHA 2.8 1.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.