NBA games

TOR @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
113–145
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR25223828113
UTAH28364140145

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home UTAH
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 30 27 4 2
Scottie Barnes S 28 19 3 3
Immanuel Quickley S 25 15 3 0
Jalen McDaniels 8 15 3 0
Dennis Schroder 23 12 0 4
Jontay Porter 31 9 6 6
Chris Boucher 12 7 0 0
Gary Trent Jr. 22 5 1 2
RJ Barrett S 30 4 7 2
Thaddeus Young S 12 0 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 29 22 9 2
Jordan Clarkson 31 21 1 5
Collin Sexton S 20 20 2 5
Simone Fontecchio S 23 13 2 0
Walker Kessler 20 12 6 1
Kelly Olynyk 21 11 10 5
Keyonte George 24 9 3 6
Ochai Agbaji 22 8 5 1
Taylor Hendricks 4 6 1 1
Kris Dunn S 17 6 5 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Immanuel Quickley · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Immanuel Quickley makes 31-foot running pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Collin Sexton UTAH
12%
2 Pascal Siakam TOR
11%
3 RJ Barrett TOR
11%
4 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
10%
5 Dennis Schroder TOR
9%
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR
9%
7 John Collins UTAH
9%
8 Thaddeus Young TOR
8%
9 Scottie Barnes TOR
8%
10 Kris Dunn UTAH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
22%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam TOR 26.2 5.6 5.7
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 22.9 8.5 2.8
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.7 6.6 5.9
4 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 22.1 4.2 6.6
5 RJ Barrett TOR 21.6 6.2 3.5
6 Collin Sexton UTAH 20.9 3.0 5.3
7 Immanuel Quickley TOR 18.9 3.3 4.4
8 Dennis Schroder TOR 17.7 3.3 6.4
9 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 14.7 2.4 3.6
10 John Collins UTAH 13.7 5.9 1.7
11 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 12.4 2.8 1.9
12 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 10.6 3.8 1.9
13 Keyonte George UTAH 9.6 2.7 2.9
14 Kelly Olynyk UTAH 9.5 3.7 4.7
15 Walker Kessler UTAH 9.0 6.7 1.0
16 Kris Dunn UTAH 6.7 4.0 5.6
17 Chris Boucher TOR 6.1 4.2 0.9
18 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 6.1 2.7 1.0
19 Ochai Agbaji UTAH 5.0 2.6 1.1
20 Jontay Porter TOR 4.6 2.8 1.3
21 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 4.1 5.2 0.9
22 Jalen McDaniels TOR 4.0 1.6 0.8
23 Luka Samanic UTAH 4.0 2.5 0.6
24 Thaddeus Young TOR 3.9 1.8 1.3
25 Garrett Temple TOR 3.0 1.3 0.7
26 Gradey Dick TOR 3.0 0.8 0.6
27 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 3.0 1.5 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.