NBA games

NO @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
113–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO25262933113
DEN37293425125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home DEN
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 35 30 6 5
Jonas Valanciunas S 26 17 6 1
Larry Nance Jr. 20 13 2 1
CJ McCollum S 30 12 5 7
Jose Alvarado 17 10 1 1
Brandon Ingram S 34 9 4 6
Herbert Jones S 19 8 1 1
Trey Murphy III 28 6 3 4
Naji Marshall 12 6 2 0
Dyson Daniels 15 2 4 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 32 27 10 14
Jamal Murray S 34 20 2 9
Michael Porter Jr. S 33 20 10 1
Aaron Gordon S 31 15 5 2
Reggie Jackson 24 12 2 0
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 31 11 2 3
Peyton Watson 15 8 3 0
DeAndre Jordan 14 6 7 1
Christian Braun 17 4 6 0
Collin Gillespie 2 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Ingram · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Brandon Ingram makes 11-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
15%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
12%
3 Brandon Ingram NO
11%
4 Aaron Gordon DEN
11%
5 Nikola Jokic DEN
10%
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
8%
7 Jonas Valanciunas NO
8%
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
8%
9 CJ McCollum NO
8%
10 Herbert Jones NO
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
19%
Layup
46%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 24.9 11.0 8.8
2 Jamal Murray DEN 24.4 4.6 6.9
3 Zion Williamson NO 21.8 6.7 5.1
4 Brandon Ingram NO 19.3 4.8 5.9
5 CJ McCollum NO 18.6 4.5 5.2
6 Aaron Gordon DEN 15.8 4.9 2.4
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 14.2 4.6 1.5
8 Jonas Valanciunas NO 12.5 9.2 2.1
9 Trey Murphy III NO 11.6 3.7 2.2
10 Herbert Jones NO 10.0 3.2 1.9
11 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 9.9 3.1 2.6
12 Peyton Watson DEN 9.0 3.1 1.1
13 Reggie Jackson DEN 7.5 2.0 3.8
14 Naji Marshall NO 7.3 2.9 1.7
15 Larry Nance Jr. NO 6.1 5.5 1.5
16 Jordan Hawkins NO 6.1 1.5 1.0
17 Dyson Daniels NO 6.1 2.7 1.7
18 Christian Braun DEN 6.1 2.7 1.4
19 Jose Alvarado NO 5.3 2.0 1.3
20 DeAndre Jordan DEN 4.5 5.5 0.9
21 Justin Holiday DEN 4.1 1.2 1.2
22 Cody Zeller NO 3.3 2.2 1.1
23 Collin Gillespie DEN 3.3 1.0 0.9
24 Jay Huff DEN 3.1 1.7 0.6
25 E.J. Liddell NO 3.0 1.9 0.6
26 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.9 1.8 0.7
27 Braxton Key DEN 2.3 1.2 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.