NBA games

POR @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
93–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR1527153693
MIN36272528116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home MIN
9% 91%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jabari Walker 32 17 13 3
Toumani Camara S 25 14 5 0
Duop Reath S 24 14 6 0
Jerami Grant S 31 13 0 1
Malcolm Brogdon 26 9 2 3
Scoot Henderson S 25 8 2 4
Anfernee Simons S 29 5 2 3
Rayan Rupert 7 3 1 1
Matisse Thybulle 14 3 1 0
Justin Minaya 9 3 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Rudy Gobert S 28 24 17 0
Karl-Anthony Towns S 28 23 8 1
Naz Reid 21 14 3 1
Mike Conley S 20 9 4 10
Jaden McDaniels S 24 9 2 3
Anthony Edwards S 27 9 3 6
Shake Milton 10 6 0 2
Troy Brown Jr. 9 6 2 3
Leonard Miller 8 4 2 0
Wendell Moore Jr. 8 4 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mike Conley · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Mike Conley makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jaden McDaniels assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
14%
2 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
3 Jerami Grant POR
10%
4 Anfernee Simons POR
9%
5 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
9%
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
7 Scoot Henderson POR
8%
8 Kyle Anderson MIN
8%
9 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN
6%
10 Duop Reath POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
55%
Jumper
9%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 29.8 5.1 6.1
2 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 23.5 7.5 4.3
3 Anfernee Simons POR 22.7 4.0 5.1
4 Jerami Grant POR 18.5 3.6 2.9
5 Scoot Henderson POR 17.0 3.8 5.9
6 Rudy Gobert MIN 15.3 12.3 1.7
7 Malcolm Brogdon POR 13.4 3.3 4.4
8 Naz Reid MIN 12.6 6.1 1.9
9 Mike Conley MIN 11.9 2.8 6.6
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN 11.3 3.4 1.7
11 Duop Reath POR 8.9 5.3 1.0
12 Kyle Anderson MIN 8.2 4.3 3.6
13 Toumani Camara POR 7.1 5.3 1.2
14 Jabari Walker POR 7.1 5.5 0.9
15 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 6.7 2.1 2.0
16 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.8 2.8 1.1
17 Kris Murray POR 5.2 2.8 0.9
18 Leonard Miller MIN 4.1 2.6 0.6
19 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 4.1 1.9 1.9
20 Daishen Nix MIN 4.1 1.3 1.3
21 Shake Milton MIN 3.8 1.2 1.1
22 Ibou Badji POR 3.5 3.9 0.8
23 Justin Minaya POR 3.3 1.9 0.8
24 Rayan Rupert POR 3.2 1.5 0.8
25 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 3.0 1.3 0.9
26 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 1.9 0.9 0.6
27 Josh Minott MIN 1.9 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.