NBA games

LAC @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
128–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC23423528128
MEM26272640119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home MEM
65% 35%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paul George S 35 37 3 1
Kawhi Leonard S 29 22 7 4
Amir Coffey 26 13 2 1
Russell Westbrook 16 12 2 2
James Harden S 28 11 1 9
Norman Powell 24 11 5 0
Daniel Theis 22 7 5 4
Terance Mann S 26 7 5 0
Ivica Zubac S 22 6 11 0
Jordan Miller 4 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 30 21 6 1
Xavier Tillman S 31 20 9 2
David Roddy 27 17 6 4
Desmond Bane S 23 15 1 3
Ziaire Williams 19 13 3 2
Jake LaRavia 20 12 4 1
Luke Kennard S 29 11 7 6
Vince Williams Jr. S 27 6 3 1
GG Jackson 9 4 5 1
John Konchar 6 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Xavier Tillman · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:27 Q1
"Xavier Tillman makes 5-foot two point shot (Luke Kennard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paul George LAC
15%
2 Desmond Bane MEM
14%
3 Ivica Zubac LAC
13%
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
12%
5 James Harden LAC
11%
6 Kawhi Leonard LAC
10%
7 Terance Mann LAC
9%
8 Luke Kennard MEM
8%
9 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
8%
10 Norman Powell LAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
45%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 25.4 6.5 3.8
2 Desmond Bane MEM 24.4 4.8 6.2
3 Paul George LAC 24.0 5.5 3.4
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 20.5 6.0 2.3
5 James Harden LAC 19.9 5.2 9.9
6 Ivica Zubac LAC 13.7 10.8 2.0
7 Norman Powell LAC 12.7 3.2 1.5
8 Russell Westbrook LAC 10.5 5.0 4.6
9 Terance Mann LAC 9.0 2.8 1.5
10 Ziaire Williams MEM 8.5 2.7 1.5
11 Luke Kennard MEM 8.3 2.6 2.0
12 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 8.2 6.2 2.5
13 Amir Coffey LAC 6.5 2.3 1.1
14 Santi Aldama MEM 6.3 3.8 1.1
15 Daniel Theis LAC 5.9 3.0 0.9
16 David Roddy MEM 5.9 2.2 1.5
17 Xavier Tillman MEM 5.1 5.0 1.2
18 Mason Plumlee LAC 5.0 4.7 1.2
19 John Konchar MEM 4.4 3.6 1.2
20 Jake LaRavia MEM 4.2 1.8 0.9
21 GG Jackson MEM 4.2 1.5 0.6
22 Brandon Boston LAC 4.1 1.1 0.6
23 Jacob Gilyard MEM 3.7 0.6 2.5
24 P.J. Tucker LAC 3.5 2.2 0.9
25 Bones Hyland LAC 3.3 0.9 0.8
26 Kobe Brown LAC 3.1 1.2 0.8
27 Jordan Miller LAC 1.9 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.