NBA games

ORL @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
96–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL2233182396
MIA3026192499

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home MIA
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 36 25 8 6
Moritz Wagner 29 19 5 4
Chuma Okeke S 29 16 4 2
Joe Ingles 20 14 0 6
Caleb Houstan S 32 9 2 3
Cole Anthony 27 5 3 0
Markelle Fultz 17 3 3 3
Goga Bitadze S 19 2 9 1
Jalen Suggs S 14 2 0 0
Anthony Black 9 1 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Duncan Robinson S 41 23 4 3
Bam Adebayo S 39 21 11 7
Jaime Jaquez Jr. S 37 19 7 3
Caleb Martin 24 11 4 2
Josh Richardson 25 9 1 2
Haywood Highsmith S 32 7 8 1
Kevin Love 16 5 3 1
Nikola Jovic S 25 4 3 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Jovic · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Nikola Jovic makes 22-foot three point jumper (Duncan Robinson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
16%
2 Paolo Banchero ORL
13%
3 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
13%
4 Goga Bitadze ORL
10%
5 Jalen Suggs ORL
9%
6 Caleb Martin MIA
9%
7 Chuma Okeke ORL
8%
8 Nikola Jovic MIA
8%
9 Haywood Highsmith MIA
8%
10 Caleb Houstan ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
38%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 27.4 7.4 6.3
2 Bam Adebayo MIA 24.3 11.5 4.2
3 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 17.2 4.4 3.0
4 Jalen Suggs ORL 16.0 3.7 3.0
5 Caleb Martin MIA 12.3 5.9 2.5
6 Duncan Robinson MIA 12.1 2.6 3.3
7 Cole Anthony ORL 11.7 4.6 3.0
8 Kevin Love MIA 10.9 6.3 2.6
9 Josh Richardson MIA 9.9 3.0 2.4
10 Markelle Fultz ORL 9.4 3.5 3.6
11 Moritz Wagner ORL 9.2 5.5 1.4
12 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 7.9 5.1 1.6
13 Caleb Houstan ORL 6.7 2.4 1.2
14 Goga Bitadze ORL 6.4 6.3 1.3
15 Nikola Jovic MIA 6.3 3.8 2.0
16 Trevelin Queen ORL 6.1 2.0 1.6
17 Anthony Black ORL 6.0 2.5 2.0
18 Haywood Highsmith MIA 5.8 2.7 1.1
19 Joe Ingles ORL 5.3 2.2 2.9
20 Jamal Cain MIA 4.7 1.9 0.4
21 Orlando Robinson MIA 4.4 3.1 1.0
22 Chuma Okeke ORL 4.3 3.5 0.9
23 Thomas Bryant MIA 3.5 2.9 0.4
24 R.J. Hampton MIA 2.8 1.0 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.