NBA games

HOU @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
112–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU23323324112
DET30253619110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home DET
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 37 29 6 1
Jalen Green S 39 28 4 3
Fred VanVleet S 43 20 4 12
Jabari Smith Jr. S 41 19 11 1
Jeff Green 13 6 2 0
Reggie Bullock Jr. 21 3 4 1
Cam Whitmore 15 3 1 0
Amen Thompson 8 2 1 2
Jae'Sean Tate S 20 2 7 1
Aaron Holiday 3 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Knox II S 35 19 7 2
Alec Burks 30 19 0 1
Jaden Ivey S 28 18 7 8
Isaiah Stewart S 29 16 7 1
Jalen Duren S 32 15 8 3
Marvin Bagley III 12 11 4 1
Killian Hayes S 29 5 4 8
Ausar Thompson 18 4 8 0
Isaiah Livers 16 3 0 1
Marcus Sasser 11 0 1 7

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaden Ivey · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Jaden Ivey makes 15-foot pullup jump shot (Killian Hayes assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
14%
2 Jalen Duren DET
14%
3 Jaden Ivey DET
12%
4 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
11%
5 Jalen Green HOU
9%
6 Killian Hayes DET
9%
7 Isaiah Stewart DET
8%
8 Fred VanVleet HOU
8%
9 Jae'Sean Tate HOU
8%
10 Isaiah Livers DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
17%
Layup
58%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Alperen Sengun HOU 27.0 8.8 5.4
2 Fred VanVleet HOU 19.2 3.7 7.7
3 Jalen Green HOU 18.9 4.8 4.0
4 Jaden Ivey DET 18.6 4.7 5.0
5 Jalen Duren DET 16.9 11.2 2.6
6 Alec Burks DET 15.2 3.1 1.8
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 14.5 8.4 1.6
8 Kevin Knox II DET 9.7 2.6 1.3
9 Cam Whitmore HOU 9.3 3.1 0.9
10 Isaiah Stewart DET 9.3 5.6 2.2
11 Aaron Holiday HOU 6.9 2.1 1.8
12 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 6.8 3.5 1.2
13 Marvin Bagley III DET 6.8 3.2 0.6
14 Stanley Umude DET 6.8 2.6 1.1
15 Jeff Green HOU 6.6 2.1 1.2
16 Killian Hayes DET 5.9 2.8 5.0
17 Isaiah Livers DET 5.8 2.2 1.2
18 Amen Thompson HOU 5.7 3.2 1.9
19 James Wiseman DET 5.4 4.1 0.8
20 Marcus Sasser DET 5.1 1.6 1.7
21 Ausar Thompson DET 4.4 3.4 1.3
22 Joe Harris DET 3.8 1.6 0.8
23 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 2.7 0.9 0.5
24 Boban Marjanovic HOU 2.4 2.3 0.5
25 Jock Landale HOU 2.2 1.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.