NBA games

IND @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
126–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND34343127126
ATL30321927108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home ATL
68% 32%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Obi Toppin 21 18 7 4
Buddy Hield 23 18 3 2
Bennedict Mathurin 27 15 1 3
Aaron Nesmith S 21 13 4 0
Myles Turner S 26 12 7 4
Isaiah Jackson 18 12 5 2
Bruce Brown S 21 12 1 4
Andrew Nembhard S 23 10 4 6
Jalen Smith S 19 6 7 0
T.J. McConnell 25 6 4 14
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dejounte Murray S 32 29 4 4
Saddiq Bey S 31 17 4 2
Jalen Johnson S 32 16 4 3
Trae Young S 30 13 3 6
Bogdan Bogdanovic 25 10 5 2
Clint Capela S 22 7 5 1
Onyeka Okongwu 23 6 1 1
Trent Forrest 20 4 0 6
AJ Griffin 4 2 0 0
Patty Mills 15 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Clint Capela · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Clint Capela makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Trae Young assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dejounte Murray ATL
13%
2 Trae Young ATL
12%
3 Jalen Johnson ATL
10%
4 Myles Turner IND
10%
5 Clint Capela ATL
9%
6 Bruce Brown IND
8%
7 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
8%
8 Aaron Nesmith IND
7%
9 Andrew Nembhard IND
6%
10 Saddiq Bey ATL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
37%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 28.7 3.4 9.9
2 Dejounte Murray ATL 24.7 5.0 4.4
3 Myles Turner IND 20.0 7.1 2.0
4 Jalen Johnson ATL 18.0 9.2 4.2
5 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 17.9 3.3 3.3
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND 17.6 4.6 2.1
7 Saddiq Bey ATL 12.9 7.3 1.7
8 Clint Capela ATL 12.3 10.6 1.1
9 Aaron Nesmith IND 11.8 4.1 1.8
10 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 11.6 6.9 1.4
11 Bruce Brown IND 11.3 4.7 3.5
12 Buddy Hield IND 10.1 3.5 2.0
13 Obi Toppin IND 9.5 4.8 1.8
14 Jalen Smith IND 8.8 4.8 1.2
15 Andrew Nembhard IND 8.8 2.3 3.5
16 T.J. McConnell IND 8.2 3.1 5.4
17 Isaiah Jackson IND 5.4 4.3 0.8
18 Jordan Nwora IND 4.7 1.7 0.9
19 Bruno Fernando ATL 3.7 2.6 0.6
20 Garrison Mathews ATL 3.5 1.5 0.7
21 Trent Forrest ATL 3.3 1.9 1.6
22 Patty Mills ATL 2.9 1.3 0.7
23 Seth Lundy ATL 2.8 1.0 0.4
24 Oscar Tshiebwe IND 2.3 1.3 0.4
25 Ben Sheppard IND 2.3 0.9 0.5
26 AJ Griffin ATL 2.2 0.8 0.4
27 Kendall Brown IND 1.9 1.2 0.4
28 James Johnson IND 1.8 1.0 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.