NBA games

SAC @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
93–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC2125272093
PHI29362225112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home PHI
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 38 21 5 4
Keegan Murray S 35 15 8 3
Malik Monk 27 15 1 4
Domantas Sabonis S 33 14 12 5
Trey Lyles 22 5 3 0
Harrison Barnes S 21 4 2 0
Davion Mitchell 6 4 0 0
Keon Ellis 10 3 2 0
Juan Toscano-Anderson 3 3 0 0
Sasha Vezenkov 9 2 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tobias Harris S 36 37 7 3
Tyrese Maxey S 40 21 3 4
Nicolas Batum S 25 14 5 3
Mo Bamba 20 11 3 0
Paul Reed S 24 8 8 2
De'Anthony Melton S 25 6 4 3
Danuel House Jr. 14 4 2 1
Patrick Beverley 27 4 9 7
Furkan Korkmaz 3 3 0 0
KJ Martin 3 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nicolas Batum · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Nicolas Batum makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Tyrese Maxey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC
16%
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC
15%
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI
14%
4 Tobias Harris PHI
12%
5 Keegan Murray SAC
11%
6 De'Anthony Melton PHI
9%
7 Paul Reed PHI
8%
8 Harrison Barnes SAC
8%
9 Nicolas Batum PHI
7%
10 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
24%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC 26.9 14.1 8.9
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 26.1 3.5 6.6
3 De'Aaron Fox SAC 25.1 4.3 5.5
4 Tobias Harris PHI 20.3 6.2 4.2
5 Malik Monk SAC 17.7 3.5 5.8
6 Keegan Murray SAC 15.9 5.9 1.7
7 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 12.8 4.0 2.1
8 De'Anthony Melton PHI 10.2 3.7 1.9
9 Harrison Barnes SAC 9.2 2.6 1.2
10 Trey Lyles SAC 8.3 4.1 1.4
11 Paul Reed PHI 7.9 5.3 1.6
12 Marcus Morris Sr. PHI 7.8 2.9 1.3
13 Patrick Beverley PHI 6.8 2.9 2.1
14 Nicolas Batum PHI 6.3 3.5 2.2
15 Chris Duarte SAC 5.3 2.4 1.3
16 Mo Bamba PHI 4.5 3.5 1.0
17 JaVale McGee SAC 4.4 2.7 0.8
18 Keon Ellis SAC 4.4 1.7 1.6
19 Alex Len SAC 3.8 4.4 1.3
20 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 3.5 2.1 0.6
21 Davion Mitchell SAC 3.4 1.5 1.0
22 Colby Jones SAC 3.4 1.7 0.6
23 Jaden Springer PHI 3.2 1.6 0.9
24 Kessler Edwards SAC 2.9 1.1 0.5
25 Danuel House Jr. PHI 2.7 1.1 0.6
26 Juan Toscano-Anderson SAC 2.6 1.9 0.6
27 KJ Martin PHI 2.6 1.1 0.7
28 Furkan Korkmaz PHI 1.4 0.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.