NBA games

PHX @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
127–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX36303922127
LAL25272631109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home LAL
71% 29%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bradley Beal S 32 37 6 4
Devin Booker S 34 31 5 5
Kevin Durant S 32 18 5 5
Jusuf Nurkic S 28 9 12 2
Bol Bol 17 6 6 2
Josh Okogie 12 5 0 0
Eric Gordon 23 5 3 0
Grayson Allen S 30 5 5 3
Chimezie Metu 9 4 2 1
Nassir Little 4 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
D'Angelo Russell 27 19 1 6
Max Christie 25 14 7 4
Anthony Davis S 32 13 5 1
Austin Reaves S 30 13 1 6
Skylar Mays 12 12 1 1
Taurean Prince S 28 11 6 2
LeBron James S 24 10 5 9
Jarred Vanderbilt 29 6 9 2
Jaxson Hayes 13 6 2 1
Dylan Windler 5 3 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Grayson Allen · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Grayson Allen makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bradley Beal assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
19%
2 Bradley Beal PHX
12%
3 LeBron James LAL
12%
4 Devin Booker PHX
10%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
9%
6 Kevin Durant PHX
9%
7 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
8%
8 Cam Reddish LAL
7%
9 Grayson Allen PHX
7%
10 Taurean Prince LAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
89%
Jumper
1%
Layup
6%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Davis LAL 29.4 10.7 5.1
2 Kevin Durant PHX 27.9 6.0 6.6
3 LeBron James LAL 25.8 6.2 8.8
4 Devin Booker PHX 24.7 3.8 7.3
5 Bradley Beal PHX 17.9 4.2 4.2
6 Austin Reaves LAL 16.7 3.9 5.9
7 Grayson Allen PHX 16.6 3.8 3.5
8 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 14.2 10.6 3.0
9 D'Angelo Russell LAL 12.3 2.4 5.6
10 Eric Gordon PHX 11.8 2.7 1.8
11 Taurean Prince LAL 10.5 3.3 2.0
12 Chimezie Metu PHX 8.6 4.6 1.2
13 Cam Reddish LAL 8.2 2.4 2.0
14 Christian Wood LAL 8.2 4.7 1.3
15 Max Christie LAL 6.2 3.3 1.2
16 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 5.3 4.1 1.2
17 Josh Okogie PHX 4.8 2.0 1.8
18 Nassir Little PHX 4.3 2.2 0.8
19 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 4.0 2.0 1.0
20 Jordan Goodwin PHX 3.8 2.3 1.8
21 Skylar Mays LAL 3.8 1.2 1.7
22 Yuta Watanabe PHX 3.5 1.3 0.7
23 Bol Bol PHX 3.1 1.8 0.5
24 Dylan Windler LAL 2.5 0.9 0.6
25 Udoka Azubuike PHX 2.4 2.1 0.3
26 Jaxson Hayes LAL 2.3 1.4 0.3
27 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 2.0 0.8 0.7
28 Maxwell Lewis LAL 1.3 0.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.