NBA games

NY @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
124–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY26293138124
DAL44302727128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home DAL
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 37 32 6 5
Jalen Brunson S 39 30 2 8
Donte DiVincenzo S 30 19 4 3
OG Anunoby S 39 10 6 2
Quentin Grimes 15 9 0 3
Isaiah Hartenstein S 32 8 15 3
Precious Achiuwa 16 7 6 0
Miles McBride 9 5 2 1
Josh Hart 23 4 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyrie Irving S 40 44 4 10
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 39 32 6 4
Josh Green S 35 18 2 3
Grant Williams 27 11 6 3
Derrick Jones Jr. S 35 9 4 1
Jaden Hardy 23 8 6 4
Dwight Powell S 28 4 9 2
Markieff Morris 4 2 0 0
Seth Curry 10 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyrie Irving · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Kyrie Irving makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
15%
2 Kyrie Irving DAL
14%
3 Julius Randle NY
13%
4 OG Anunoby NY
11%
5 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
10%
6 Dwight Powell DAL
9%
7 Josh Green DAL
9%
8 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
9%
9 Donte DiVincenzo NY
9%
10 Precious Achiuwa NY
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
30%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Julius Randle NY 27.7 8.8 4.5
2 Jalen Brunson NY 26.0 4.1 8.1
3 Kyrie Irving DAL 24.1 5.9 4.3
4 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 15.6 3.9 2.1
5 OG Anunoby NY 15.3 4.1 2.5
6 Donte DiVincenzo NY 12.6 3.5 2.7
7 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 11.8 4.7 1.3
8 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 10.2 10.4 3.0
9 Jaden Hardy DAL 8.9 2.9 1.8
10 Josh Hart NY 8.4 6.8 3.0
11 Josh Green DAL 7.3 3.2 2.5
12 Quentin Grimes NY 7.0 2.6 1.1
13 Evan Fournier NY 6.7 1.9 0.8
14 Grant Williams DAL 6.6 3.0 1.4
15 Dwight Powell DAL 6.0 4.4 1.9
16 Seth Curry DAL 5.3 1.7 1.0
17 A.J. Lawson DAL 5.3 1.9 0.8
18 Miles McBride NY 4.8 1.3 1.1
19 Precious Achiuwa NY 4.7 3.6 0.7
20 Brandon Williams DAL 4.2 1.3 0.9
21 Malachi Flynn NY 3.9 2.1 1.3
22 Markieff Morris DAL 3.6 2.1 1.0
23 Richaun Holmes DAL 3.5 3.2 0.7
24 Jericho Sims NY 2.9 1.9 0.6
25 Ryan Arcidiacono NY 2.3 1.3 0.6
26 Charlie Brown Jr. NY 1.2 0.3 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.