NBA games

POR @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
77–139
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR2415172177
OKC36394321139

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home OKC
12% 88%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons S 20 14 3 2
Scoot Henderson S 31 13 6 2
Jerami Grant S 25 9 2 2
Kris Murray 23 9 5 0
Duop Reath S 24 8 7 2
Shaedon Sharpe 21 7 6 1
Toumani Camara S 32 6 5 1
Justin Minaya 14 4 2 1
Matisse Thybulle 19 4 0 1
Rayan Rupert 12 3 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 21 31 5 4
Jalen Williams S 19 21 7 4
Chet Holmgren S 20 19 4 3
Josh Giddey S 23 13 10 12
Tre Mann 18 11 7 4
Luguentz Dort S 19 11 3 1
Ousmane Dieng 23 9 6 3
Jaylin Williams 18 6 4 1
Lindy Waters III 12 6 2 2
Cason Wallace 17 4 6 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
15%
2 Anfernee Simons POR
15%
3 Jerami Grant POR
11%
4 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
5 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
6 Scoot Henderson POR
9%
7 Josh Giddey OKC
8%
8 Duop Reath POR
7%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
10 Toumani Camara POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
60%
Jumper
8%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.0 5.9 7.8
2 Anfernee Simons POR 24.5 4.3 5.7
3 Jalen Williams OKC 23.1 4.6 6.3
4 Chet Holmgren OKC 22.0 6.3 3.3
5 Jerami Grant POR 20.7 3.7 3.4
6 Scoot Henderson POR 15.9 3.7 6.2
7 Josh Giddey OKC 14.2 5.6 5.1
8 Malcolm Brogdon POR 14.0 3.3 4.7
9 Shaedon Sharpe POR 11.8 3.5 2.0
10 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.8 4.2 1.7
11 Duop Reath POR 9.0 5.3 1.0
12 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.2 2.6 1.3
13 Toumani Camara POR 7.5 5.6 1.3
14 Cason Wallace OKC 7.4 2.5 1.7
15 Matisse Thybulle POR 6.2 2.9 1.2
16 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.7 2.7 1.9
17 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.4 2.6 1.1
18 Kris Murray POR 5.1 2.8 1.0
19 Vasilije Micic OKC 4.3 1.8 3.0
20 Ibou Badji POR 3.7 3.9 0.8
21 Keyontae Johnson OKC 3.6 1.4 0.7
22 Lindy Waters III OKC 3.5 1.0 0.7
23 Jaylin Williams OKC 3.3 2.6 1.5
24 Ousmane Dieng OKC 3.3 0.8 0.7
25 Justin Minaya POR 3.1 1.7 0.8
26 Rayan Rupert POR 2.8 1.3 0.7
27 Tre Mann OKC 2.6 1.1 1.1

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.