NBA games

BOS @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
102–135
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS23153232102
MIL41343624135

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home MIL
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Payton Pritchard 31 21 4 4
Sam Hauser 24 15 4 0
Oshae Brissett 17 13 2 1
Jaylen Brown S 18 10 4 3
Svi Mykhailiuk 17 9 1 1
Jayson Tatum S 16 7 1 3
Kristaps Porzingis S 21 6 2 4
Jrue Holiday S 19 6 4 2
Lamar Stevens 19 5 4 0
Dalano Banton 18 4 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bobby Portis 22 28 12 0
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 26 24 12 6
Damian Lillard S 27 21 4 4
Malik Beasley S 27 16 4 0
Brook Lopez S 28 15 5 3
AJ Green 9 9 2 2
Cameron Payne 15 7 4 3
Thanasis Antetokounmpo 9 6 1 1
Khris Middleton S 20 5 2 7
Pat Connaughton 21 2 1 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Damian Lillard · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Damian Lillard makes 27-foot step back jumpshot (Khris Middleton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Damian Lillard MIL
12%
2 Jrue Holiday BOS
11%
3 Khris Middleton MIL
10%
4 Jayson Tatum BOS
10%
5 Derrick White BOS
9%
6 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
9%
7 Jaylen Brown BOS
9%
8 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
8%
9 Brook Lopez MIL
8%
10 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
40%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 31.8 11.6 8.0
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 26.6 7.6 5.7
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 26.4 6.0 4.1
4 Damian Lillard MIL 24.0 3.9 6.6
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 21.2 7.6 2.3
6 Khris Middleton MIL 19.8 4.0 6.7
7 Derrick White BOS 17.6 4.6 5.4
8 Jrue Holiday BOS 17.3 5.7 5.4
9 Brook Lopez MIL 11.6 5.9 1.3
10 Malik Beasley MIL 10.4 3.0 1.3
11 Bobby Portis MIL 10.1 6.0 1.2
12 Payton Pritchard BOS 8.4 3.2 2.7
13 Sam Hauser BOS 7.1 3.5 1.3
14 Pat Connaughton MIL 6.1 3.3 1.3
15 Luke Kornet BOS 6.0 4.4 1.2
16 Oshae Brissett BOS 5.3 3.7 0.8
17 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 5.3 2.2 1.0
18 Neemias Queta BOS 4.5 4.1 0.6
19 TyTy Washington Jr. MIL 4.5 1.6 1.8
20 Cameron Payne MIL 4.2 0.9 1.5
21 AJ Green MIL 4.1 1.3 0.7
22 Chris Livingston MIL 3.4 1.6 0.6
23 Dalano Banton BOS 3.0 1.7 0.7
24 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.6 1.7 0.8
25 Lamar Stevens BOS 2.5 1.6 0.4
26 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 2.5 1.1 0.7
27 Robin Lopez MIL 2.3 0.9 0.5
28 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.2 1.1 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.