NBA games

BKN @ CLE

NBA Bercy Arena ·Final
102–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN16182642102
CLE26282433111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home CLE
16% 84%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Thomas 35 26 6 2
Mikal Bridges S 39 26 6 1
Lonnie Walker IV 25 20 3 2
Nic Claxton S 33 13 11 1
Trendon Watford 13 8 4 1
Cameron Johnson S 23 3 2 1
Harry Giles III 3 2 1 1
Spencer Dinwiddie S 16 2 2 3
Dennis Smith Jr. 23 2 4 5
Royce O'Neale 17 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 41 45 12 6
Caris LeVert 35 21 3 1
Jarrett Allen S 38 12 12 4
Isaac Okoro S 35 12 4 0
Georges Niang 16 10 4 2
Sam Merrill 32 6 9 1
Dean Wade S 27 4 1 2
Tristan Thompson 10 1 2 0
Max Strus S 7 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donovan Mitchell · Layup (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Donovan Mitchell makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
18%
2 Mikal Bridges BKN
12%
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE
11%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
10%
5 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
9%
6 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN
9%
7 Isaac Okoro CLE
8%
8 Cameron Johnson BKN
8%
9 Max Strus CLE
8%
10 Dean Wade CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
22%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
21%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 25.9 4.5 6.7
2 Mikal Bridges BKN 21.2 4.7 3.8
3 Jarrett Allen CLE 20.1 11.7 4.7
4 Caris LeVert CLE 19.2 3.8 5.6
5 Max Strus CLE 15.0 4.1 4.3
6 Cameron Johnson BKN 14.8 4.0 2.2
7 Cam Thomas BKN 12.8 2.0 1.8
8 Nic Claxton BKN 12.7 10.5 2.3
9 Isaac Okoro CLE 11.8 3.6 2.6
10 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN 11.6 2.8 4.3
11 Georges Niang CLE 10.1 3.6 1.3
12 Sam Merrill CLE 9.3 2.5 1.8
13 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 9.1 2.3 1.2
14 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 9.0 3.9 1.4
15 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 8.9 3.5 4.7
16 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 8.3 6.6 1.7
17 Royce O'Neale BKN 6.9 3.4 2.5
18 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 6.8 3.6 4.3
19 Dean Wade CLE 6.4 4.4 1.0
20 Tristan Thompson CLE 4.8 4.4 1.5
21 Trendon Watford BKN 3.9 2.0 1.2
22 Harry Giles III BKN 2.8 1.4 0.3
23 Emoni Bates CLE 2.2 0.9 0.5
24 Damian Jones CLE 1.9 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.