NBA games

TOR @ LAC

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
120–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR29283528120
LAC28303335126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home LAC
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Immanuel Quickley S 36 25 4 6
RJ Barrett S 37 24 5 4
Dennis Schroder S 34 22 1 4
Scottie Barnes S 34 12 7 6
Gary Trent Jr. 24 12 3 2
Jontay Porter 18 9 7 4
Thaddeus Young S 23 8 4 3
Chris Boucher 11 3 1 0
Garrett Temple 8 3 2 1
Jalen McDaniels 13 2 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 38 29 3 7
Paul George S 38 29 7 6
James Harden S 34 14 5 11
Terance Mann S 24 13 2 1
Norman Powell 27 13 3 1
Ivica Zubac S 31 12 11 3
Russell Westbrook 14 6 0 3
Amir Coffey 18 6 1 1
Daniel Theis 16 4 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Terance Mann · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Terance Mann makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paul George LAC
13%
2 RJ Barrett TOR
11%
3 Ivica Zubac LAC
11%
4 Pascal Siakam TOR
11%
5 Scottie Barnes TOR
10%
6 Kawhi Leonard LAC
9%
7 James Harden LAC
9%
8 Thaddeus Young TOR
9%
9 Terance Mann LAC
8%
10 Immanuel Quickley TOR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
43%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam TOR 25.8 5.5 5.4
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 24.9 6.4 3.6
3 Paul George LAC 23.0 5.0 3.5
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 21.6 6.6 5.7
5 James Harden LAC 19.8 5.1 10.1
6 RJ Barrett TOR 19.4 6.2 3.1
7 Immanuel Quickley TOR 17.7 3.1 3.7
8 Dennis Schroder TOR 14.9 3.3 6.1
9 Norman Powell LAC 13.8 3.2 1.6
10 Ivica Zubac LAC 13.4 10.6 2.0
11 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 11.9 2.7 2.0
12 Russell Westbrook LAC 11.0 5.8 4.8
13 Terance Mann LAC 8.8 2.8 1.7
14 Amir Coffey LAC 7.2 2.4 1.3
15 Daniel Theis LAC 6.6 2.7 1.1
16 Chris Boucher TOR 5.9 4.9 0.7
17 Mason Plumlee LAC 5.6 4.7 1.3
18 Brandon Boston LAC 4.6 1.3 0.8
19 Thaddeus Young TOR 3.6 1.7 1.0
20 Jontay Porter TOR 3.6 2.2 0.7
21 P.J. Tucker LAC 3.6 2.1 1.0
22 Kobe Brown LAC 3.6 1.3 0.9
23 Bones Hyland LAC 3.5 0.9 0.9
24 Jalen McDaniels TOR 3.3 1.1 0.7
25 Garrett Temple TOR 2.2 0.9 0.6
26 Otto Porter Jr. TOR 1.9 1.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.