NBA games

NO @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
141105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO46273236141
GS27332322105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home GS
76% 24%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jonas Valanciunas S 21 21 9 2
Zion Williamson S 30 19 5 7
Trey Murphy III 24 16 4 6
CJ McCollum S 26 14 3 8
Jordan Hawkins 21 14 1 2
Brandon Ingram S 23 13 5 1
Herbert Jones S 23 12 5 4
Naji Marshall 13 12 3 2
Dyson Daniels 22 8 3 3
Larry Nance Jr. 19 6 5 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Moses Moody 25 21 2 0
Trayce Jackson-Davis 22 19 5 1
Stephen Curry S 25 15 1 6
Klay Thompson S 24 13 4 2
Jonathan Kuminga S 28 12 3 4
Kevon Looney S 19 7 7 0
Andrew Wiggins 23 5 2 2
Dario Saric 13 4 3 3
Lester Quinones 8 3 1 1
Brandin Podziemski S 25 2 9 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Herbert Jones · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:04 Q1
"Herbert Jones makes 23-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
14%
2 Stephen Curry GS
12%
3 Jonathan Kuminga GS
11%
4 Brandon Ingram NO
8%
5 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
8%
6 Jonas Valanciunas NO
8%
7 Draymond Green GS
7%
8 Andrew Wiggins GS
7%
9 Herbert Jones NO
7%
10 CJ McCollum NO
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
41%
Jumper
18%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 23.2 3.7 5.6
2 Brandon Ingram NO 22.3 4.6 6.2
3 Zion Williamson NO 22.3 7.1 4.4
4 CJ McCollum NO 18.8 4.6 5.2
5 Klay Thompson GS 16.7 3.3 3.0
6 Jonathan Kuminga GS 16.3 5.7 3.1
7 Jonas Valanciunas NO 13.7 10.0 2.1
8 Trey Murphy III NO 12.3 3.9 2.3
9 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 11.3 7.7 1.7
10 Andrew Wiggins GS 11.1 3.7 1.7
11 Brandin Podziemski GS 10.6 5.5 4.3
12 Herbert Jones NO 9.9 2.9 1.9
13 Draymond Green GS 9.4 4.9 5.0
14 Dario Saric GS 8.7 4.4 1.9
15 Moses Moody GS 6.5 2.3 0.9
16 Naji Marshall NO 6.3 2.7 1.5
17 Jose Alvarado NO 5.9 2.1 1.4
18 Larry Nance Jr. NO 5.8 5.3 1.4
19 Dyson Daniels NO 5.6 2.5 1.7
20 Kevon Looney GS 5.0 4.6 1.6
21 Jordan Hawkins NO 4.8 1.3 0.8
22 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 3.8 2.3 0.8
23 Lester Quinones GS 3.5 1.3 1.1
24 E.J. Liddell NO 2.9 1.9 0.6
25 Cody Zeller NO 2.9 2.1 1.0
26 Gui Santos GS 2.2 1.2 0.3
27 Cory Joseph GS 2.1 0.9 1.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.