NBA games

DEN @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
111–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN24292533111
UTAH35362825124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home UTAH
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 30 27 11 6
Jamal Murray S 31 17 1 6
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 28 12 1 1
Aaron Gordon S 29 12 5 4
Collin Gillespie 6 8 1 1
Zeke Nnaji 6 5 0 1
DeAndre Jordan 8 5 5 0
Reggie Jackson 20 5 0 2
Christian Braun 17 5 3 1
Michael Porter Jr. S 24 5 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Clarkson 33 27 2 9
Lauri Markkanen S 32 26 12 2
Collin Sexton S 21 22 2 4
John Collins S 24 15 6 3
Kelly Olynyk 19 9 3 5
Walker Kessler 15 8 4 1
Keyonte George 22 6 1 3
Kris Dunn S 26 5 4 3
Simone Fontecchio S 21 3 0 2
Omer Yurtseven 3 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Michael Porter Jr. · Layup (2 pts) · 11:17 Q1
"Michael Porter Jr. makes two point shot (Nikola Jokic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jamal Murray DEN
13%
2 Aaron Gordon DEN
12%
3 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
12%
4 Collin Sexton UTAH
12%
5 Nikola Jokic DEN
10%
6 John Collins UTAH
9%
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
8%
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
8%
9 Kris Dunn UTAH
8%
10 Simone Fontecchio UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
51%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 25.1 10.9 8.8
2 Jamal Murray DEN 24.7 5.0 7.0
3 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 22.4 8.4 2.6
4 Collin Sexton UTAH 19.9 3.0 5.6
5 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 19.9 4.7 6.2
6 Aaron Gordon DEN 16.2 5.8 2.4
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 15.2 4.8 1.6
8 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 14.7 2.4 3.6
9 John Collins UTAH 13.2 6.1 1.6
10 Keyonte George UTAH 11.9 2.9 3.3
11 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 10.6 3.9 1.7
12 Kelly Olynyk UTAH 10.3 3.6 4.9
13 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 10.1 3.4 2.7
14 Peyton Watson DEN 9.5 3.4 1.1
15 Walker Kessler UTAH 9.3 7.1 0.9
16 Reggie Jackson DEN 7.8 2.1 4.2
17 Kris Dunn UTAH 7.0 3.9 5.8
18 Ochai Agbaji UTAH 6.1 2.3 1.1
19 Christian Braun DEN 6.0 2.7 1.4
20 DeAndre Jordan DEN 4.5 5.6 1.0
21 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 4.4 2.1 0.6
22 Justin Holiday DEN 3.8 1.2 1.1
23 Jay Huff DEN 3.3 2.1 0.7
24 Luka Samanic UTAH 3.3 2.3 0.4
25 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 3.2 4.9 0.7
26 Collin Gillespie DEN 2.8 1.0 0.9
27 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.4 2.2 0.8
28 Braxton Key DEN 2.2 1.1 0.8
29 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 1.9 1.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.