NBA games

HOU @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
119–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
HOU243029297119
CHI2834321812124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home CHI
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 41 25 9 5
Fred VanVleet S 42 20 6 10
Jabari Smith Jr. S 47 18 15 1
Jalen Green S 40 18 6 8
Cam Whitmore 33 16 5 1
Jeff Green 19 9 3 1
Amen Thompson 14 6 2 3
Aaron Holiday 11 4 2 0
Jae'Sean Tate S 18 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 43 30 4 8
Zach LaVine S 41 25 13 7
DeMar DeRozan S 43 19 4 4
Nikola Vucevic S 41 18 15 3
Alex Caruso S 32 12 6 3
Ayo Dosunmu 18 8 4 3
Patrick Williams 29 5 0 1
Andre Drummond 13 4 0 1
Dalen Terry 6 3 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Fred VanVleet · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:49 Q1
"Fred VanVleet makes 20-foot pullup jump shot (Alperen Sengun assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI
13%
2 Coby White CHI
12%
3 Alperen Sengun HOU
12%
4 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
11%
5 Andre Drummond CHI
10%
6 Jalen Green HOU
9%
7 Patrick Williams CHI
8%
8 Jae'Sean Tate HOU
8%
9 Alex Caruso CHI
8%
10 Fred VanVleet HOU
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
32%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Alperen Sengun HOU 25.8 9.6 4.8
2 DeMar DeRozan CHI 23.3 4.7 5.9
3 Coby White CHI 22.5 5.6 5.0
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 19.9 9.8 4.1
5 Zach LaVine CHI 19.5 4.9 4.4
6 Fred VanVleet HOU 18.4 3.2 6.9
7 Jalen Green HOU 17.9 4.7 3.4
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 15.4 8.1 1.4
9 Alex Caruso CHI 12.4 4.0 3.0
10 Patrick Williams CHI 12.4 3.7 1.7
11 Andre Drummond CHI 11.9 9.6 1.3
12 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 11.7 3.8 1.9
13 Cam Whitmore HOU 8.2 2.7 0.7
14 Aaron Holiday HOU 6.6 2.2 1.7
15 Torrey Craig CHI 6.5 3.2 0.8
16 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 6.4 3.8 1.2
17 Jeff Green HOU 5.8 2.0 1.1
18 Amen Thompson HOU 5.8 3.4 2.0
19 Jevon Carter CHI 5.6 1.6 1.2
20 Dalen Terry CHI 4.6 2.5 1.8
21 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 2.6 0.8 0.4
22 Terry Taylor CHI 2.4 1.4 0.4
23 Boban Marjanovic HOU 2.3 2.0 0.5
24 Jock Landale HOU 2.1 1.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.