NBA games

OKC @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
128–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC29363429128
MIA35342724120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home MIA
73% 27%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 34 28 2 8
Chet Holmgren S 33 23 9 2
Jalen Williams S 35 19 9 12
Luguentz Dort S 26 14 2 0
Isaiah Joe 22 11 2 0
Josh Giddey S 20 9 7 2
Cason Wallace 18 8 2 1
Kenrich Williams 17 7 6 2
Vasilije Micic 15 4 1 5
Jaylin Williams 12 3 2 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 37 25 11 6
Jaime Jaquez Jr. S 34 21 5 2
Haywood Highsmith S 35 19 5 2
Tyler Herro S 37 17 5 6
Nikola Jovic S 33 15 5 4
Kevin Love 20 12 5 2
Josh Richardson 21 8 1 2
Duncan Robinson 25 3 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Haywood Highsmith · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:09 Q1
"Haywood Highsmith makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
14%
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
14%
3 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
14%
4 Tyler Herro MIA
12%
5 Jalen Williams OKC
10%
6 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
7 Luguentz Dort OKC
10%
8 Josh Giddey OKC
8%
9 Nikola Jovic MIA
7%
10 Duncan Robinson MIA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
42%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.3 6.4 7.4
2 Bam Adebayo MIA 23.6 10.7 4.5
3 Tyler Herro MIA 23.2 5.5 4.9
4 Jalen Williams OKC 22.1 4.5 5.6
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 21.3 5.9 3.5
6 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 16.7 4.5 3.0
7 Josh Giddey OKC 14.1 6.0 5.1
8 Duncan Robinson MIA 13.4 2.9 3.6
9 Kevin Love MIA 12.0 6.3 2.7
10 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.3 4.3 1.8
11 Josh Richardson MIA 10.0 3.1 2.6
12 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.7 2.4 1.3
13 Cason Wallace OKC 6.4 2.1 1.7
14 Nikola Jovic MIA 6.0 4.4 2.1
15 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.5 2.9 1.0
16 Haywood Highsmith MIA 5.1 2.6 1.0
17 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.0 2.3 1.7
18 Jamal Cain MIA 5.0 2.0 0.6
19 Orlando Robinson MIA 4.7 3.2 1.2
20 Thomas Bryant MIA 3.6 3.0 0.5
21 Lindy Waters III OKC 3.2 0.9 0.6
22 R.J. Hampton MIA 3.0 1.1 1.2
23 Vasilije Micic OKC 2.5 1.1 2.0
24 Tre Mann OKC 2.2 1.0 1.0
25 Jaylin Williams OKC 1.8 2.0 0.7
26 Aleksej Pokusevski OKC 1.2 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.