NBA games

PHI @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
132–139
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
PHI313334277132
ATL3427343014139

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home ATL
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 43 35 8 9
Tobias Harris S 41 32 10 4
Marcus Morris Sr. 26 17 4 1
De'Anthony Melton S 21 10 3 2
Patrick Beverley 13 9 3 2
Paul Reed S 19 9 9 2
Kelly Oubre Jr. 32 7 3 2
Nicolas Batum S 37 6 4 2
Mo Bamba 14 5 6 2
Jaden Springer 13 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 43 28 1 11
Jalen Johnson S 41 25 16 7
Dejounte Murray S 38 25 5 5
Onyeka Okongwu S 36 19 11 1
Saddiq Bey S 37 15 10 1
Bogdan Bogdanovic 28 15 2 4
Bruno Fernando 17 8 5 0
Trent Forrest 19 4 5 3
Patty Mills 6 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Onyeka Okongwu · Layup (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Onyeka Okongwu makes 2-foot layup (Trae Young assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Johnson ATL
14%
2 Trae Young ATL
12%
3 Dejounte Murray ATL
11%
4 Tobias Harris PHI
10%
5 Tyrese Maxey PHI
9%
6 De'Anthony Melton PHI
9%
7 Saddiq Bey ATL
8%
8 Paul Reed PHI
7%
9 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
7%
10 Marcus Morris Sr. PHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
29%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 27.7 3.5 10.4
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 26.2 3.5 6.7
3 Dejounte Murray ATL 24.0 5.0 4.2
4 Tobias Harris PHI 19.2 6.1 4.2
5 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 18.0 3.3 3.5
6 Jalen Johnson ATL 17.4 8.9 3.7
7 Saddiq Bey ATL 13.2 6.8 1.8
8 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 12.5 4.1 1.8
9 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 11.1 6.3 1.4
10 De'Anthony Melton PHI 9.4 3.2 1.9
11 Paul Reed PHI 7.5 4.8 1.3
12 Marcus Morris Sr. PHI 6.4 2.8 1.0
13 Nicolas Batum PHI 6.1 3.2 2.2
14 Patrick Beverley PHI 5.7 2.5 1.9
15 Mo Bamba PHI 3.8 3.0 0.7
16 Danuel House Jr. PHI 3.2 1.3 0.7
17 Seth Lundy ATL 2.9 1.1 0.4
18 Jaden Springer PHI 2.7 1.2 0.8
19 Bruno Fernando ATL 2.7 1.8 0.4
20 Trent Forrest ATL 2.3 1.3 1.0
21 AJ Griffin ATL 2.3 0.9 0.5
22 KJ Martin PHI 2.2 1.1 0.5
23 Furkan Korkmaz PHI 1.8 0.5 0.6
24 Patty Mills ATL 1.5 0.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.