NBA games

WSH @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
104–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH21342524104
IND23313523112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home IND
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 34 28 4 7
Deni Avdija S 25 15 5 1
Corey Kispert 30 15 3 2
Daniel Gafford S 37 12 8 2
Kyle Kuzma S 34 11 11 5
Tyus Jones S 34 11 4 4
Bilal Coulibaly 22 5 6 1
Mike Muscala 11 4 4 0
Delon Wright 14 3 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Myles Turner S 31 18 13 3
Bruce Brown S 27 16 9 6
Bennedict Mathurin 28 16 7 0
Obi Toppin S 28 15 7 3
T.J. McConnell 22 14 2 8
Isaiah Jackson 17 12 3 1
Aaron Nesmith S 24 10 3 1
Jordan Nwora 17 9 5 0
Andrew Nembhard S 26 2 2 5
Buddy Hield 19 0 3 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyus Jones · Layup (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Tyus Jones makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Myles Turner IND
14%
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH
13%
3 Tyus Jones WSH
12%
4 Jordan Poole WSH
12%
5 Daniel Gafford WSH
12%
6 Bruce Brown IND
11%
7 Aaron Nesmith IND
9%
8 Deni Avdija WSH
9%
9 Jalen Smith IND
8%
10 Corey Kispert WSH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
27%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
16%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH 22.9 6.2 4.5
2 Myles Turner IND 19.7 6.7 2.1
3 Bennedict Mathurin IND 16.6 4.5 2.3
4 Tyus Jones WSH 15.8 2.8 5.8
5 Jordan Poole WSH 15.4 2.8 3.9
6 Deni Avdija WSH 14.7 7.1 4.1
7 Aaron Nesmith IND 12.5 4.4 1.9
8 Buddy Hield IND 11.9 4.1 2.2
9 Bruce Brown IND 11.8 4.9 3.0
10 Corey Kispert WSH 11.5 2.1 1.6
11 Obi Toppin IND 10.4 4.8 1.7
12 Daniel Gafford WSH 10.2 7.9 1.3
13 Jalen Smith IND 9.8 5.0 1.5
14 Andrew Nembhard IND 9.5 2.4 4.0
15 T.J. McConnell IND 8.1 3.4 5.5
16 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 7.4 4.5 2.1
17 Delon Wright WSH 5.9 2.2 2.2
18 Mike Muscala WSH 5.7 3.8 1.1
19 Isaiah Jackson IND 5.5 4.3 0.8
20 Danilo Gallinari WSH 4.1 2.1 0.6
21 Jordan Nwora IND 3.7 1.3 0.8
22 Oscar Tshiebwe IND 2.6 1.3 0.5
23 Anthony Gill WSH 2.5 1.9 0.4
24 Ben Sheppard IND 2.5 1.0 0.6
25 James Johnson IND 2.2 1.1 1.0
26 Kendall Brown IND 2.2 1.2 0.5
27 Jules Bernard WSH 2.1 0.8 0.3
28 Johnny Davis WSH 2.0 1.0 0.3
29 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 1.8 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.