NBA games

SA @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
130–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA31323235130
DET19322631108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home DET
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keldon Johnson 25 17 1 3
Victor Wembanyama S 21 16 12 10
Devin Vassell S 27 16 3 5
Jeremy Sochan S 28 15 4 2
Doug McDermott 15 14 2 0
Dominick Barlow 24 11 8 4
Cedi Osman 21 11 6 3
Tre Jones S 27 11 2 5
Blake Wesley 6 9 1 0
Malaki Branham 21 7 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Duren S 30 21 12 2
Bojan Bogdanovic S 33 19 2 2
Jaden Ivey S 30 19 3 5
Alec Burks 20 15 2 2
Kevin Knox II 24 12 4 0
Marcus Sasser 16 6 2 5
Isaiah Livers S 17 6 4 1
Killian Hayes S 32 4 4 12
James Wiseman 17 3 3 3
Ausar Thompson 15 3 6 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tre Jones · Layup (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Tre Jones makes driving layup (Victor Wembanyama assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
13%
2 Jaden Ivey DET
11%
3 Victor Wembanyama SA
10%
4 Bojan Bogdanovic DET
10%
5 Devin Vassell SA
10%
6 Tre Jones SA
9%
7 Killian Hayes DET
8%
8 Isaiah Stewart DET
8%
9 Jeremy Sochan SA
8%
10 Isaiah Livers DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
41%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
14%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 27.5 9.6 4.7
2 Devin Vassell SA 21.0 3.8 3.8
3 Bojan Bogdanovic DET 20.5 4.9 3.7
4 Keldon Johnson SA 19.7 6.3 3.3
5 Jaden Ivey DET 19.2 5.1 5.3
6 Jalen Duren DET 17.2 12.3 2.6
7 Alec Burks DET 14.7 3.1 1.8
8 Jeremy Sochan SA 13.4 5.7 4.0
9 Tre Jones SA 11.7 3.6 4.9
10 Mamadi Diakite SA 11.1 4.7 1.0
11 Malaki Branham SA 10.1 3.0 2.7
12 Isaiah Stewart DET 9.5 5.8 2.2
13 Kevin Knox II DET 9.1 2.6 1.3
14 Marvin Bagley III DET 7.2 3.8 0.7
15 Isaiah Livers DET 6.2 2.6 1.3
16 James Wiseman DET 6.2 5.0 0.9
17 Killian Hayes DET 6.0 3.0 4.8
18 Marcus Sasser DET 5.6 1.9 1.6
19 Cedi Osman SA 5.4 2.2 2.0
20 Julian Champagnie SA 5.2 2.3 1.0
21 Ausar Thompson DET 5.1 3.4 1.4
22 Joe Harris DET 4.1 1.7 1.0
23 Doug McDermott SA 4.0 0.8 0.7
24 Devonte' Graham SA 3.2 1.0 1.4
25 Dominick Barlow SA 3.1 2.7 0.9
26 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.0 1.9 1.1
27 Blake Wesley SA 2.9 1.4 1.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.